Analysis: The ABC/Washington Post Poll, even though almost 40% is not ...

9y ago Jul 16, 2017 at 2:10 PM

The ABC/Washington Post Poll, even though almost 40% is not bad at this time, was just about the most inaccurate poll around election time!

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AI Analysis

Machine-generated analysis of the post above on 2026-03-11. Not written by the author of the post.

Danger Level

None

Narcissistic State

Grandiose

Authorship

Uncertain

Intensity

30%

Authorship Analysis

Uncertain

Indicators:

Business hours posting (10:10 AM ET)
Relatively coherent single-sentence structure
Reactive/defensive tone typical of authentic Trump
No typos but informal phrasing
Poll-obsession is a known authentic Trump pattern

Psychological Profile

▶ State

Grandiose State

Trigger: Narcissistic Injury — Criticism (ABC/Washington Post approval poll showing ~36-40%)

Sentiment

-0.30

▶ Clinical

Malignant Narcissism:

Narcissistic

50%

Antisocial

10%

Paranoid

20%

Sadism

Defense Mechanisms:

rationalizationdenialprojection

Cognitive Complexity:

Complexity

40%

Parasocial Techniques:

Inviting audience to share dismissal of mainstream pollingModeling which information sources to trust

Danger Assessment

None

Gaslighting Detected:

Attacks on measurement validity to undermine audience's trust in objective metrics
Trains followers to dismiss unfavorable data as inherently flawed

Reality Distortions:

Characterizing ~36% as 'almost 40%'
Claiming ABC/WaPo was 'the most inaccurate poll' when it was relatively close to actual results

Fact Checks (2)

"ABC/Washington Post Poll showed almost 40% approval"

Mostly True

The ABC/WaPo poll around this period showed Trump approval at approximately 36%, which he rounds up to 'almost 40%'

"ABC/Washington Post poll was 'the most inaccurate poll around election time'"

Mostly False

The final ABC/WaPo 2016 tracking poll showed Clinton +4, close to the actual popular vote margin of +2.1. It was not the most inaccurate national poll; several others were further off. However, national polls generally underestimated Trump's Electoral College performance.

Receipts

No contradictions with other posts detected yet.

Analysis: ABC/Washington Post Poll Dismissal (July 16, 2017)

Post: "The ABC/Washington Post Poll, even though almost 40% is not bad at this time, was just about the most inaccurate poll around election time!"

Context

Posted during a period of intense scrutiny over Donald Trump Jr.'s Russia meeting emails. Trump's approval rating hovered near 36-40% in various polls. The ABC/WaPo poll released around this time showed his approval at approximately 36%.

Authorship

Posted at 10:10 AM EDT (Trump was likely at Trump National Golf Club in Bedminster, NJ for the US Women's Open). The timing and polished-but-reactive style suggest possible authentic authorship during morning media consumption, though business hours timing is ambiguous.

Psychological Dynamics

Classic supply-maintenance post. The structure reveals a two-part defense: (1) reframe bad numbers as acceptable ("almost 40% is not bad at this time"), then (2) discredit the source entirely ("most inaccurate poll"). This is textbook rationalization layered with denial — if the number isn't bad AND the source is unreliable, the narcissistic self-image is doubly protected.

The parenthetical concession ("not bad at this time") is notable — it briefly acknowledges reality before pivoting to attack, suggesting the number does sting.

Rhetorical Technique

Delegitimization of measurement itself. By attacking polling methodology via election recall, Trump trains his audience to distrust any metric that reflects poorly on him. This is a form of epistemic closure — followers learn that unfavorable data is inherently suspect.

Broader Pattern

This post fits the longitudinal pattern of poll-watching and media-attacking that intensifies when substantive political threats loom (here, the Don Jr. emails story).

Fact Verification

Claim	Verdict	Evidence
"ABC/Washington Post Poll showed almost 40% approval"	Mostly True	The ABC/WaPo poll around this period showed Trump approval at approximately 36%, which he rounds up to 'almost 40%'
"ABC/Washington Post poll was 'the most inaccurate poll around election time'"	Mostly False	The final ABC/WaPo 2016 tracking poll showed Clinton +4, close to the actual popular vote margin of +2.1. It was not the most inaccurate national poll; several others were further off. However, national polls generally underestimated Trump's Electoral College performance.

Overall Veracity: 50%