AI Analysis
Machine-generated analysis of the post above on 2026-11-08. Not written by the author of the post.
Four days after the midterms, Trump declared Alaska's Senate race "OVER" and said Dan Sullivan "WON, BY A LOT!" Votes were still being counted, certification was weeks away, and Mary Peltola had led narrowly in first-choice votes on election night. His case adds two minor candidates' votes straight into Sullivan's total. Alaska's ranked-choice system moves those ballots only to whoever each voter ranked next, so some would go to Peltola and some would not count at all. The post also says one candidate was "fraudulently put into the Race," treats the normal counting time as suspicious ("This should be immediate!"), and says a vote for the other Sullivan on the ballot should count for the senator. This is a familiar sequence: announce the result, cast doubt on the delay, call the other side's ballot fraudulent. A loss that comes later is then already framed as theft. It comes days after a judge dismissed his administration's lawsuit over Alaska's Senate ballots, and on the same day as posts about midterm losses and Democrats who "should go to jail." The figures look staff-supplied, but the wording and sign-off are his.
- Posted 2:55 p.m. EST Saturday, likely at Mar-a-Lago: aide hours
- Precise vote counts and two-decimal percentages suggest a supplied tally
- Common nouns capitalized ('Votes', 'Race') in his usual way
- Loose phrasing: 'add Daniel... into Dan'
- Spaced dash aside: '– Never even voted –'
Strongest facet: Assertiveness (extraversion), with low trust in election administrators
Primary drive: power
Trigger: Preemptive Attack — Defeat (Unfinished Alaska Senate count with Peltola narrowly ahead on first choices, amid broader midterm losses)
Elevated
- President declares a pending count 'OVER' before certification (Nov 25)
- Unsupported claim that a candidate was 'fraudulently put into the Race'
- Treats counting delay as suspect, priming a stolen-election reading
- Follows the administration's dismissed suit over Alaska Senate ballots
- Declares a win the official count does not show
- Recasts votes for one candidate as votes for another
- Frames normal counting time as illegitimate delay
- 'Dan Sullivan WON, BY A LOT!' with Peltola leading narrowly on first choices and ballots outstanding
- Assumes all minor-candidate ballots transfer to Sullivan under ranked-choice tabulation
- 'Anyone voting for Daniel J. Sullivan, Jr.... is a vote for Senator Dan Sullivan'
As of the post date, the count was unfinished and certification was scheduled for Nov. 25. Election-night returns with 394 of 401 precincts reporting had Peltola at 48% of first-choice votes to Sullivan's 47.7%, with absentee ballots and rural precincts expected to favor Peltola still outstanding. No outlet had called the race.
Alaska's ranked-choice tabulation transfers an eliminated candidate's ballots only to the next candidate each voter ranked. Some go to Peltola, and ballots with no further ranking drop out. Adding all of the minor candidates' first-choice votes to Sullivan assumes a 100% transfer rate that ranked-choice counting does not produce. The vote figures themselves could not be checked against the count at that time, but the conclusion depends on the faulty method.
Gerald Heikes is a Palmer drywall contractor, minister and perennial Republican candidate. He has run before for governor (2014 primary), U.S. Senate and U.S. House. He filed for the 2026 race himself and finished fifth in the August 18 top-four primary with about 1.1% (1,741 votes). He reached the November ballot through a lawful process. Democrat David Leslie, who finished fourth, 109 votes ahead of him, withdrew before the deadline, and under Alaska law that moved Heikes into the fourth slot (Anchorage Daily News, Sept. 1; Leslie's own statement to reporter Taniel).
There is a real basis for suspicion. Leslie said he withdrew under 'much pressure from not just the Alaska Democratic leadership, but many different institutions of power.' The New York Times reported that Democratic operative Jerid Kurtz contacted Leslie before he withdrew. Heikes told the Times that an unnamed man approached him about running and offered help, and he told CNN an operative he couldn't name pitched him on a Senate run. He also said he had already planned to run, that 'I wasn't recruited. I just took a chance,' and that he supports Sen. Sullivan. Democratic-aligned super PACs with Thomas Datwyler as treasurer spent heavily to boost him. Right for Alaska, funded mostly by the liberal Sixteen Thirty Fund and Liberty Force Action Fund, spent more than $2.3 million before the primary. Alaska Values PAC and Red Alaska PAC spent more than $3.75 million in the general election, attacking Sullivan and promoting Heikes (CNN, Alaska Beacon). Days before the election, federal prosecutors served Heikes with a grand jury subpoena seeking records on the Peltola campaign, the Elias Law Group and several PACs. A senior Civil Rights Division official in Washington signed it, not an Alaska prosecutor.
As of the post date, though, nobody had been charged, no court had found fraud, and no official had found that Heikes's ballot placement was illegal. CNN found no charges or legal violations involving Heikes, and the DOJ probe it described centers on Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. Election experts CNN quoted called funding fringe candidates to split an opponent's vote a 'long and legal tradition,' though one that is criticized. So the claim has a kernel: Democratic-aligned money and maneuvering helped Heikes, and a federal probe is open. But 'fraudulently put into the race' states as fact an illegality that no investigation or court had established. Heikes qualified by his own filing and through a legal withdrawal.
The middle-initial claim distorts a real episode. No reporting describes a legal name change or any petition to change his middle initial. The episode behind it is a ballot-listing exchange with the Alaska Division of Elections. In her June 15, 2026 disqualification letter, Director Carol Beecher said he 'initially emailed the Division asking to be listed on the ballot as "Dan S. Sullivan"' and added that 'S' is the senator's initial, not his (Alaska Beacon, NBC News). Columnist Dermot Cole published the email sequence, which gives a different picture. His May 29 sworn declaration did not use 'S'. A June 3 letter, signed 'Daniel J. Sullivan,' suggested using middle initials to tell the two apart. On June 8 he sent a reply reading 'Dan S. Sullivan,' then about eight hours later wrote 'Apologies. Please list as Dan J. Sullivan.' So he did send one email requesting the senator's initial, but he withdrew it himself the same day. No deadline stopped it, as 'unable to get it done in time' implies. The Division then disqualified him over a broader finding of bad faith. Anchorage Superior Court reversed that, the Alaska Supreme Court affirmed, and the state listed him as 'Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.' with no party label.
The 'otherwise nonpolitical, never even voted' part is unsupported and contradicted by the record. He is a registered voter, enrolled as 'Daniel J. Sullivan, Jr.' per the Division letter reported by NBC. Alaska Public Media and the Alaska Beacon report he was a longtime member of the Alaska Independence Party, registered Republican when that party dissolved, and then, according to Division records reported by the Alaska Beacon, switched to undeclared when he requested an absentee ballot for the August 2026 primary. The Wikipedia summary of coverage says he donated to Peltola in 2022 and 2024, and the NRSC also says he gave to her. A Petersburg donor told AP he 'sometimes voted for Republicans,' and another said Sullivan had backed a long local fight against state logging. The Division found he had no Republican affiliation until just before he declared, which is a party-registration point, not proof he never voted. No source found supports the claim that he never voted, and the evidence points the other way.
No contradictions with other posts detected yet.
Four days after a midterm election he admitted went badly for Republicans, Trump spent Saturday treating Democrats' plans to investigate his administration as a crime. He said he was ordering the Justice Department to look into what he called extortion. He then wrote that the "SLEAZEBAGS should go t...
Declaring a ranked-choice race over before the count
Four days after the 2026 midterms, with Alaska's count unfinished and certification set for November 25, Trump says Senator Dan Sullivan "WON, BY A LOT!" The case rests on one piece of arithmetic. He takes the first-choice votes of two minor candidates, "Daniel (3,600, 1.68%)" and "Gerald Heikes (4,846, 2.27%)", and adds them to the incumbent's column. On election night, published returns had Mary Peltola ahead on first choices, 48% to 47.7%, with rural precincts expected to favor her still outstanding. Ranked-choice tabulation does move an eliminated candidate's ballots to their next ranking, so the reasoning has a real mechanism under it. What the post does is treat that transfer as complete and settled in Sullivan's favor. Only ballots that ranked Sullivan next would move to him. Ballots that ranked Peltola next go to her, and ballots with no further ranking drop out of the count. "When you add Daniel... into Dan" starts from the outcome it wants and fills in the numbers afterward.
The post builds a case that the outcome is already known and that the institutions are slow to admit it, possibly on purpose. "I don't know what takes so long to announce his win. This should be immediate!" treats Alaska's normal count, slow every cycle because of absentee and remote-community ballots, as suspicious in itself. "Heikes was also fraudulently put into the Race" (the word "also" points back to an earlier claim about the same-name candidate) puts a fraud frame on the ballot itself. Heikes is a perennial Republican candidate in Alaska, and the post cites nothing for the charge. This is the order Trump has used in 2020 and since. He announces the result, labels the delay suspect, and calls the opponents' ballot access fraudulent. Any later result that differs then arrives already labeled illegitimate.
Defenses and the narcissistic stake
The main defense is distortion: an uncertain count gets reshaped into "The Alaska Race is OVER." Through rationalization, a defensible technical point about vote transfers becomes cover for a conclusion the rules don't yet support. There is devaluation of the same-name candidate: "a man who tried to change his middle initial, but was unable to get it done in time, and who was otherwise nonpolitical – Never even voted." He is cast as a fraudulent decoy, so votes cast for him can be counted for someone else ("is a vote for Senator Dan Sullivan"). That move overrides what voters actually marked on the ballot.
The trigger is most plausibly a threatened defeat. On the same day he posted about Democrats "threatening" donors and the Attorney General with impeachment, and about the Senate "losing Elections." Those posts suggest a midterm going badly for his party, and this race is one he can still claim. His state reads as grandiose ("BY A LOT!"), though underneath he is defending against a loss. Anger shows only as impatience ("This should be immediate!"), not rage. Compared with the same-day posts calling Democrats "SLEAZEBAGS" who "should go to jail," this one is measured.
Authorship
The post went out at 2:55 p.m. Eastern on a Saturday. He was most likely at Mar-a-Lago, which places it in aide hours. The precise figures with percentages to two decimals look supplied, probably from a staff or campaign tally. The voice is still his. Common nouns get capitals ("Votes," "Race"). A spaced dash sets off "Never even voted" mid-sentence. The phrasing is loose ("add Daniel... into Dan"), it ends on "BY A LOT!", and he signs off with the "President DONALD J. TRUMP" block. The best reading is Trump writing or dictating around numbers someone handed him.
Danger and reality claims
The post names no target for action and doesn't mobilize anyone. Its risk lies in what it does to an election that hasn't been decided. A president who calls a pending count "OVER" and a candidate's ballot access "fraudulent" sets up any Peltola win as theft. This comes after his administration's failed suit to separate and preserve Alaska Senate ballots, which a federal judge dismissed on November 2. Asking followers to accept "Sullivan WON" before officials have counted works as a loyalty test about reality. The Times reported him saying he would not challenge the results, and this post points the other way.
Cognitive markers
The post holds together. Its argument runs in order from the claimed lead, to the arithmetic, to the fraud claim, to the impatience, to the conclusion. It confuses the two Sullivans in places ("Daniel Sullivan is leading substantially," where context shows he means Senator Dan Sullivan), but the race has two candidates with nearly the same name, so the mix-up comes from the subject matter and not from memory.
Fact Verification
| Claim | Verdict | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| "The Alaska Race is OVER. Dan Sullivan WON, BY A LOT!" | False | As of the post date, the count was unfinished and certification was scheduled for Nov. 25. Election-night returns with 394 of 401 precincts reporting had Peltola at 48% of first-choice votes to Sullivan's 47.7%, with absentee ballots and rural precincts expected to favor Peltola still outstanding. No outlet had called the race. |
| "Adding Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.'s and Gerald Heikes's votes, Senator Dan Sullivan is up by thousands of votes" | Mostly False | Alaska's ranked-choice tabulation transfers an eliminated candidate's ballots only to the next candidate each voter ranked. Some go to Peltola, and ballots with no further ranking drop out. Adding all of the minor candidates' first-choice votes to Sullivan assumes a 100% transfer rate that ranked-choice counting does not produce. The vote figures themselves could not be checked against the count at that time, but the conclusion depends on the faulty method. |
| "Heikes was also fraudulently put into the Race" | Mostly False | Gerald Heikes is a Palmer drywall contractor, minister and perennial Republican candidate. He has run before for governor (2014 primary), U.S. Senate and U.S. House. He filed for the 2026 race himself and finished fifth in the August 18 top-four primary with about 1.1% (1,741 votes). He reached the November ballot through a lawful process. Democrat David Leslie, who finished fourth, 109 votes ahead of him, withdrew before the deadline, and under Alaska law that moved Heikes into the fourth slot (Anchorage Daily News, Sept. 1; Leslie's own statement to reporter Taniel). |
There is a real basis for suspicion. Leslie said he withdrew under 'much pressure from not just the Alaska Democratic leadership, but many different institutions of power.' The New York Times reported that Democratic operative Jerid Kurtz contacted Leslie before he withdrew. Heikes told the Times that an unnamed man approached him about running and offered help, and he told CNN an operative he couldn't name pitched him on a Senate run. He also said he had already planned to run, that 'I wasn't recruited. I just took a chance,' and that he supports Sen. Sullivan. Democratic-aligned super PACs with Thomas Datwyler as treasurer spent heavily to boost him. Right for Alaska, funded mostly by the liberal Sixteen Thirty Fund and Liberty Force Action Fund, spent more than $2.3 million before the primary. Alaska Values PAC and Red Alaska PAC spent more than $3.75 million in the general election, attacking Sullivan and promoting Heikes (CNN, Alaska Beacon). Days before the election, federal prosecutors served Heikes with a grand jury subpoena seeking records on the Peltola campaign, the Elias Law Group and several PACs. A senior Civil Rights Division official in Washington signed it, not an Alaska prosecutor.
As of the post date, though, nobody had been charged, no court had found fraud, and no official had found that Heikes's ballot placement was illegal. CNN found no charges or legal violations involving Heikes, and the DOJ probe it described centers on Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. Election experts CNN quoted called funding fringe candidates to split an opponent's vote a 'long and legal tradition,' though one that is criticized. So the claim has a kernel: Democratic-aligned money and maneuvering helped Heikes, and a federal probe is open. But 'fraudulently put into the race' states as fact an illegality that no investigation or court had established. Heikes qualified by his own filing and through a legal withdrawal. | | "Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. tried to change his middle initial but could not do it in time, and had never voted" | Mostly False | The middle-initial claim distorts a real episode. No reporting describes a legal name change or any petition to change his middle initial. The episode behind it is a ballot-listing exchange with the Alaska Division of Elections. In her June 15, 2026 disqualification letter, Director Carol Beecher said he 'initially emailed the Division asking to be listed on the ballot as "Dan S. Sullivan"' and added that 'S' is the senator's initial, not his (Alaska Beacon, NBC News). Columnist Dermot Cole published the email sequence, which gives a different picture. His May 29 sworn declaration did not use 'S'. A June 3 letter, signed 'Daniel J. Sullivan,' suggested using middle initials to tell the two apart. On June 8 he sent a reply reading 'Dan S. Sullivan,' then about eight hours later wrote 'Apologies. Please list as Dan J. Sullivan.' So he did send one email requesting the senator's initial, but he withdrew it himself the same day. No deadline stopped it, as 'unable to get it done in time' implies. The Division then disqualified him over a broader finding of bad faith. Anchorage Superior Court reversed that, the Alaska Supreme Court affirmed, and the state listed him as 'Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.' with no party label.
The 'otherwise nonpolitical, never even voted' part is unsupported and contradicted by the record. He is a registered voter, enrolled as 'Daniel J. Sullivan, Jr.' per the Division letter reported by NBC. Alaska Public Media and the Alaska Beacon report he was a longtime member of the Alaska Independence Party, registered Republican when that party dissolved, and then, according to Division records reported by the Alaska Beacon, switched to undeclared when he requested an absentee ballot for the August 2026 primary. The Wikipedia summary of coverage says he donated to Peltola in 2022 and 2024, and the NRSC also says he gave to her. A Petersburg donor told AP he 'sometimes voted for Republicans,' and another said Sullivan had backed a long local fight against state logging. The Division found he had no Republican affiliation until just before he declared, which is a party-registration point, not proof he never voted. No source found supports the claim that he never voted, and the evidence points the other way. |
Overall Veracity: 15%
Post from Truth Social
Daniel Sullivan is leading substantially in the Alaska Senatorial Race. When you add Daniel (3,600, 1.68%) into Dan, and Gerald Heikes (4,846, 2.27%), Senator Dan Sullivan is up by thousands of Votes. Remember, Heikes was also fraudulently put into the Race. I don’t know what takes so long to announce his win. This should be immediate! Anyone voting for Daniel J. Sullivan, Jr., a man who tried to change his middle initial, but was unable to get it done in time, and who was otherwise nonpolitical – Never even voted – is a vote for Senator Dan Sullivan. The Alaska Race is OVER. Dan Sullivan WON, BY A LOT! President DONALD J. TRUMP