Post from Truth Social

A friendly pollster on Hannity, relayed after midnight

The post is 18 words long. It praises a pollster ("Great Pollster Matt Towery was fantastic"), names the program he appeared on ("on Sean Hannity tonight"), draws a one-line forecast from it ("Looking good for Republicans!") and closes with the "President DJT" signature that runs through his recent posts. It went up at 05:13 UTC, which is 1:13 AM Eastern Daylight Time on October 16. Hannity airs at 9 PM ET, so the post came about three to four hours after the broadcast, or after a late replay or clip. The historian record does not place him on the 15th. The Iowa post earlier that day announces future trips but no event that night, so Eastern time is the most likely frame. Even if he was somewhere else in the continental US, the post still falls late in the evening.

Why this reads as his own

The case for authorship rests on three things. The first is the hour. The second is the real-time television reaction: he names the host and the guest and uses the word "tonight", which places the writer in front of the broadcast or a recap of it. The third is the habit of capitalizing honorifics as though they were titles ("Great Pollster"). The text is clean, with no typos, but a post this short gives little room for errors, and clean text alone does not point to an aide. Nothing in it shows staff writing: no third-person framing, no figures, no URL, no event logistics. The one ambiguity is the signature. "President DJT" appears on both his late-night posts and on posts that look staff-written, so it doesn't settle authorship either way.

Validation from a source he can trust

The trigger is supply-seeking routed through allied media. Towery runs InsiderAdvantage, a pollster that appears often on Fox prime time and whose numbers have tended to run more favorable to Republicans than the polling average. The post borrows his authority, "Great Pollster", and turns his appearance into a collective verdict: "Looking good for Republicans!" The adjective "fantastic" is about how Towery performed, not about what his data showed. That pattern recurs in the archive, where how flattering an outside voice is counts as the measure of its quality. The schema is plain. Friendly experts are "Great", and the forecast he passes along is the one that confirms the campaign narrative he has been building through the rally tour.

At the trait level, the post shows positive affect and assertiveness (extraversion) and almost no deliberation. A single TV segment becomes a forecast for the party, with no figures or races named. The defense in use is idealization ("Great Pollster", "fantastic"). It sits alongside the selective attention typical of motivated reasoning: one favorable segment stands in for the whole state of the race. The post has no splitting or devaluation. That matters because the same 24-hour stretch includes the Cornyn/Rove post ("Super RINO", "Liddle' Buddy") and two posts attacking "James TalaFREAKO". This post is the grandiose, reassured side of a night otherwise spent on grievance about the Texas Senate race. It reads as self-soothing: after the intra-party complaints, he points to an outside voice saying the overall picture is good.

The forecast as rhetoric

The rhetorical work is small. It consists of an appeal to authority ("Great Pollster"), a bandwagon cue ("Looking good"), and amplification of an allied outlet, which recommends a Fox segment to his followers. With the midterms about two and a half weeks away, a "we're winning" message boosts turnout and pre-emptively frames the result. If the outcome turns out worse, a public record of upbeat polling from trusted sources becomes the baseline against which a loss can be called anomalous. That function is a possibility for later, and nothing in this post asserts it. The post names no target and calls for no action. The epistemic-closure element is mild: an in-network pollster on an in-network show is offered as the signal on the race, with no mention of other polling.

Language

The syntax is coherent and simple, and the post holds one topic from start to finish. The vocabulary and the capitalization of honorifics match his long-standing written style. A post this short gives too little text to measure complexity against his earlier baseline.

Fact Verification

What supports it:

• Towery's firm had fresh material that day. InsiderAdvantage released Senate surveys on October 15, conducted October 13-14 with 1,200 likely voters per state: Texas Paxton 49, Talarico 48; Kansas Marshall 48, Hamilton 47; Maine Jackson 49, Collins 47. Towery's commentary called senior enthusiasm "at a level I have never seen." Breitbart and Newsweek reported the Texas number as released Thursday, October 15.
• That is the usual trigger for a Hannity hit. In past cycles InsiderAdvantage releases have said Towery would discuss results "on FNC's Hannity tonight."
• Towery is a regular Hannity guest and the on-air pollster for Hannity's radio show. He was on the radio show on October 12 (the "Silver Wave" remarks covered by the Washington Stand and Hot Air on October 15) and on October 13 to promote his new book, which Hannity called a "must read."
• The post itself is a same-night viewer's account naming the guest and the show. Its 1:13 AM ET timestamp fits the 9 PM ET broadcast or a late replay.

What cuts against it, weakly:

• The Hannity clips Fox had posted for October 15 by analysis time were Katie Zacharia, the Oregon school shooting, and Hannity's Talarico monologue (Franklin Graham was tagged October 14). None featured Towery.
• The October 15 radio podcast episodes don't list him either.
• Fox posts only part of each night's show, and this analysis is the same day, so a missing clip is not proof he wasn't on.

The rating rests on the timing and Towery's pattern of appearances, not on a located record of the segment. | | "The midterm outlook is 'looking good for Republicans'" | Mostly False | As of the post date (October 15-16, 2026, about 19 days before the November 3 midterms), nearly every polling average, forecast model and prediction market had Democrats favored. The House was not close. The Senate leaned Democratic.

Generic ballot:

• Silver Bulletin, October 14-15 update: D+8.6, just below the cycle high of D+9.1, and D+9.3 in its likely-voter version.
• RealClearPolling, polls from 9/24 to 10/13: Democrats 50.2, Republicans 42.3 (D+7.9).
• FiftyPlusOne: about D+8.
• The friendliest poll for Republicans in RCP's table, Rasmussen, still had Democrats up 5.

Forecasts and markets:

• Decision Desk HQ: Democrats 77% to win the House (about 235 seats) and 56% for the Senate.
• Poliwave: Democrats 83% for the House and 60% for the Senate.
• Kalshi: Democrats about 90% for the House and 62% for the Senate.
• Polymarket: about 91% for the House and 64% for the Senate, with a Republican sweep priced near 9%.

RealClearPolitics headlines that week were "3 Weeks Out, GOP Plays Defense" and "Democrats Still Favored, But Midterm Races Are Tightening."

Towery's own InsiderAdvantage numbers, which tend to lean Republican, showed mostly coin-flip races. Republicans led narrowly in Texas (Paxton 49-48) and Kansas (Marshall 48-47), and in the Georgia governor's race (Jackson 49-47). Democrats led in Maine (Jackson 49-47), Michigan (El-Sayed 48-46), Alaska (Peltola 50-48) and Georgia's Senate race (Ossoff +8). Towery's case for Republicans rests on an expected surge of older voters, his "Silver Wave," which he presents as a possibility, not something the averages show.

There is a sliver of support for the claim. Silver Bulletin said the Democratic surge had leveled off, and RCP described races as tightening. That is a narrowing deficit, not a favorable outlook. Since the analysis is the same day as the post, it is graded against conditions on that date, with no hindsight about the results. |

Overall Veracity: 50%