Video transcript
It's a huge deal because President Trump is the kingmaker in Republican primaries That's why it's such a big deal. Take a look here times Trump endorses one GOP primaries This is congressional and gubernatorial in 2020. It was 98% in 2022 It was 95% in 2024. It was 96% President Trump has the magic touch when it comes to endorsing in Republican primaries And when he doesn't endorse you you go to quote the great movie good burger into the grinder And so Cassidy was one of the Republican senators who voted to convict President Trump in his second impeachment trial. How have those Republican senators done when you voted to convict President Trump in that second impeachment trial had you do for reelection not so hot to Trump because let's take a look here Okay GOP senators who voted to convict Trump won their next election just one out of five that one is Lisa Murkowski in the great state of Alaska, which of course has that top four primary situation going on there So very very different than the traditional primary structure that is throughout the rest of the United States the bottom line is this the vast majority of Republicans who voted to convict Trump who had a reelection either lost or actually they didn't even run they retired They resigned in the case of Ben Sasse or there are two up for reelection this year Bill Cassidy and Susan Collins up in Maine But the bottom line is this if you voted to convict Trump so far your chances of winning reelection happen quite quite small and Bill Cassidy, of course just got a major impediment to his road to reelection if let low decides to run This really largely has to do with how much Republicans still support Donald Trump. Yeah I mean look Donald Trump was popular in 2016 He was really popular in 2018 really popular in 2020 popular in 2022 popular in 2024 And now we come to 2026 among Republicans exactly, right? And he is still quite popular amongst Republicans at this point. Look overall in July. It was 89 percent That was six months ago today. It's basically the same at 88 percent How about strongly approved those who don't just like downstream, but love them love them love them in July. It was 61 percent It's the same 61 percent now and that is why the GOP voters when Donald Trump says something They say how quickly can we get to Donald Trump's position? If you want to see the impact that this had just this one statement from President Trump over the weekend What did it do in the betting markets to Bill Cassidy's chances of being elected? Yeah, you look at the prediction markets Take a look here chance to be the 20 to 2026 GOP nominee for the Louisiana Senate race Bill Cassidy at just an 18 percent chance at this point and this lines up very much with what we've seen historically speaking That is when Donald Trump goes against you in Republican primary your chances fall through the floor All right, that number says everything Harry and thank you very much
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