Analysis: The polls are rigged even more than the writers. The real nu...

7mo ago Dec 31, 2025 at 2:58 AM

The polls are rigged even more than the writers. The real number is 64%, and why not, our Country is "hotter" than ever before. Isn't it nice to have a STRONG BORDER, No Inflation, a powerful Military, and great Economy??? Happy New Year!

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AI Analysis

Machine-generated analysis of the post above on 2026-03-22. Not written by the author of the post.

Danger Level

None

Narcissistic State

Grandiose

Authorship

Uncertain

Intensity

35%

Authorship Analysis

Uncertain

Indicators:

Evening timing at Mar-a-Lago (9:58 PM EST)
Emotional reactivity about polls
ALL CAPS usage (STRONG BORDER)
Quotation marks around 'hotter' — characteristic Trumpian emphasis
Stream-of-consciousness transition from grievance to boasting to holiday greeting

Psychological Profile

▶ State

Grandiose State

Trigger: Supply Seeking — Criticism (Approval poll showing number lower than desired)

Sentiment

+0.40

▶ Clinical

Malignant Narcissism:

Narcissistic

70%

Antisocial

20%

Paranoid

30%

Sadism

Defense Mechanisms:

distortiondenialprojection

Cognitive Complexity:

Complexity

40%

Parasocial Techniques:

Rhetorical question inviting shared experience ('Isn't it nice...?')Holiday greeting creating pseudo-intimate relationshipUse of 'our Country' creating in-group belonging

Danger Assessment

None

Gaslighting Detected:

Dismissing legitimate polling as 'rigged'
Substituting fabricated number for documented data
Asserting 'No Inflation' contrary to economic data

Reality Distortions:

Polls are rigged
64% approval is the 'real number'
No Inflation

Fact Checks (3)

"Real approval number is 64%"

False

No credible national poll showed Trump at 64% approval at any point during 2025. Multiple polling aggregators and individual polls from late December 2025 consistently placed his approval far below that figure:

Gallup: 36% approval
Marist: 38% approval
Reuters/Ipsos: 39% approval
Economist/YouGov (Dec 26-29): 39% approval
Quinnipiac: 40% approval
Emerson College (Dec 14-15): 41% approval
Silver Bulletin/NYT average: 42% approval
RealClearPolitics average: 43% approval
Decision Desk HQ average: 44-45% approval
Trafalgar Group (Dec 26-27): 50% approval (the highest individual poll found)
Rasmussen Reports: net approval of -10 points in late December

The 64% figure has no identifiable legitimate source. One possible origin: Morning Consult's state-level tracking showed Wyoming (Trump's most popular state) at approximately 64% approval, but Trump presented the number as his national approval rating.

"No Inflation"

Mostly False

Inflation persisted through 2025 though at reduced rates from 2022-23 peaks; claiming zero inflation is inaccurate

"Strong border"

Half True

Border encounters decreased under Trump's policies but 'strong' is subjective characterization

Receipts

No contradictions with other posts detected yet.

Analysis: New Year's Eve Post (2025-12-31)

Trump was at Mar-a-Lago (EST, UTC-5), making this posted at ~9:58 PM local time — evening but not late night. The post references an attached poll image showing approval ratings, which he disputes as too low.

Personality Framework

Level 1 (Traits): High extraversion (assertive, positive affect), low agreeableness (dismissive of pollsters), high neuroticism facet of angry hostility (calling polls "rigged"). Grandiosity prominent — claiming 64% approval as "the real number."

Level 2 (Motives): Pure supply-seeking. Lists accomplishments (border, inflation, military, economy) as validation demands. The rhetorical question "Isn't it nice...?" is a parasocial intimacy technique — inviting followers to share in his grandiosity.

Level 3 (Narrative): Protagonist as successful leader whose greatness is suppressed by dishonest measurement. The "rigged polls" frame positions him as perpetually undervalued — a contamination sequence where genuine success is tainted by unfair reporting.

Clinical Indicators

The assertion that polls are "rigged even more than the writers" is characteristic distortion — dismissing unfavorable data by attacking the source. The claim of 64% is fabricated or cherry-picked without citation. The factual claims (no inflation, strong border) are contestable but serve grandiose self-image maintenance.

Rhetorical Techniques

Classic year-end supply-seeking: list of claimed achievements followed by holiday greeting. The "Happy New Year!" softens the combative opening, creating a grandiose-then-generous arc typical of his posting pattern.

Fact Verification

Claim	Verdict	Evidence
"Real approval number is 64%"	False	No credible national poll showed Trump at 64% approval at any point during 2025. Multiple polling aggregators and individual polls from late December 2025 consistently placed his approval far below that figure:

Gallup: 36% approval
Marist: 38% approval
Reuters/Ipsos: 39% approval
Economist/YouGov (Dec 26-29): 39% approval
Quinnipiac: 40% approval
Emerson College (Dec 14-15): 41% approval
Silver Bulletin/NYT average: 42% approval
RealClearPolitics average: 43% approval
Decision Desk HQ average: 44-45% approval
Trafalgar Group (Dec 26-27): 50% approval (the highest individual poll found)
Rasmussen Reports: net approval of -10 points in late December

This fits a documented pattern. In February 2025, Trump similarly claimed approval ratings of 71% and 69%, which were also unsupported by any publicly available polling data. Multiple news organizations (The Hill, MSNBC, Newsweek) and CNN's fact-check team characterized these claims as fabricated. As the MSNBC analysis noted, "the grand total of publicly available national polls, conducted at any time in 2025, which showed Trump with a 64% approval rating is zero." | | "No Inflation" | Mostly False | Inflation persisted through 2025 though at reduced rates from 2022-23 peaks; claiming zero inflation is inaccurate | | "Strong border" | Half True | Border encounters decreased under Trump's policies but 'strong' is subjective characterization |

Overall Veracity: 23%