AI Analysis
Machine-generated analysis of the post above on 2026-10-25. Not written by the author of the post.
A late-night post attacking Senator Lisa Murkowski after she objected to his earlier claims about ranked-choice voting. The attached graphic shows a ballot with two Sullivans under a red "SCAM!" banner. The post blames that confusion on ranked-choice voting, though the namesake would appear on any ballot. It escalates to "the Democrats want to steal the Election" and "this impending, tragic crime," framing a possible loss as theft before any vote is cast. It names a private citizen, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., as the instrument of that crime while calling for DOJ action. It also attributes to Murkowski, a senator of his own party, a wish for the theft to succeed ("probably wants that to happen"). The post casts federal benefits to Alaska as his personal gift ("I produced... Billions and Billions") and ends with a conditional threat that "everything we've done for Alaska will come to an immediate hault" if the seat is lost. The pattern shows splitting within his own party, projection of election theft, and transactional coercion of a state's voters. The danger rests on naming an unprotected private individual as a criminal actor; there is no violent language.
- Posted 11:13 p.m. Eastern on a Saturday
- Misspelling "hault" for "halt"
- Long self-aggrandizing parenthetical inserted mid-sentence about producing "Billions and Billions of Dollars" for Alaska
- Awkward blend "VOTE 'YES' AGAINST RANKED CHOICE VOTING"
- Speculative aside "Murkowski probably wants that to happen"
Strongest facet: angry hostility
Primary drive: power
Trigger: Narcissistic Injury — Criticism (Murkowski's objection to his earlier claims about the ranked-choice ballot)
Rage: Intensity 60% targeting Lisa Murkowski; Democrats; Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.
Elevated
- Names a private citizen, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., as the instrument of an "impending, tragic crime"
- Calls for DOJ legal action against an opposing candidacy
- Preemptively frames a possible election loss as theft ("the Democrats want to steal the Election")
- Ties a state's federal benefits to the election outcome
- Blames confusion caused by two candidates with the same name on the ranked-choice ballot format
- Calls a voter-adopted 2020 election law a "TOTAL DEMOCRAT SCAM"
- Claims Murkowski "only got elected because of Corrupt Ranked Choice Voting" though she led the first round
- Ranked-choice voting presented as a Democratic scheme designed to confuse voters
- A namesake candidacy presented as a coordinated Democratic plot to steal the seat
- Biden presented as having "totally shut down" Alaska
In the 2022 general election Murkowski led the first round with about 43.4% to Kelly Tshibaka's 42.6%, then won 53.7% to 46.3% after ranked-choice tabulation. The top-four open primary got her onto the general ballot without a closed Republican primary, which arguably helped, but she was ahead before any ranking was applied. She also won in 2010 (write-in) and 2016 (plurality), before RCV existed.
The Biden administration canceled ANWR oil leases and limited development in the National Petroleum Reserve. It also approved ConocoPhillips' Willow project in March 2023, the largest new oil development in Alaska in decades. Restrictions on some projects are not a shutdown of the state.
Alaska voters adopted ranked-choice voting and open primaries by ballot measure in 2020, years before the namesake filed. The confusion shown in the attached ballot comes from two candidates with nearly the same name, which would occur under any ballot format. The Alaska Division of Elections, overseen by a Republican lieutenant governor, tried to remove the namesake, and a Superior Court judge kept him on the ballot.
Some of the background is documented, but nothing shows the Democratic Party put him on the ballot, and the courts have held that his place on it is legal.
Circumstantial facts that support suspicion:
- He is a retired Petersburg teacher and former Forest Service employee. He registered as a Republican the same day he filed, three days before the deadline. He says he had been in the Alaskan Independence Party since 1980.
- He told a New York Times reporter (republished by Election Law Blog and DNYUZ) that he never voted for Trump, voted for the Democratic nominee in the last three presidential elections, voted for Mary Peltola in 2022 and 2024, and would probably prefer Peltola to the incumbent in November.
- FEC records found by Alaska's News Source show a Petersburg Dan Sullivan gave Peltola $100 in August 2022 and $30 in August 2024 through ActBlue.
- He hired Amber Lee to help file his candidacy and launch the campaign. Lee is a consultant who has worked for Democratic candidates and publicly backs Peltola. Her name is in the metadata of his launch press release. She is also an unpaid board member of the 907 Initiative, a progressive group that has spent over $1 million against Sen. Sullivan.
- The state Division of Elections removed him in June, finding his filing was not made in good faith.
- NBC and Reuters reported in July and August, citing unnamed sources, a state and federal investigation and grand jury subpoenas to witnesses tied to his campaign. The possible charges named were wire fraud and conspiracy against voting rights.
- On September 9, a Republican-linked group, Americans for Public Trust, filed an FEC complaint alleging he coordinated with the 907 Initiative.
What cuts against the claim:
- Anchorage Superior Court Judge Thomas Matthews ruled the removal unlawful because Alaska law has no 'good faith' standard. The Alaska Supreme Court upheld that ruling on June 29.
- The Peltola campaign, the Alaska Democratic Party and the DSCC all deny any involvement.
- Alaska's News Source called the small donations 'the only documented link' to Peltola and said no direct coordination by Peltola or her campaign has been established.
- The Times reporter who interviewed him found no case-closing evidence of a Democratic plot.
- The U.S. Attorney's Office has never confirmed the probe, and as of October 24 there were no charges or target letters.
- The FEC lacks a quorum, so the complaint is unresolved.
- The DOJ civil suit filed October 22 calls his candidacy 'frivolous' and aimed at helping Peltola. That is an allegation. AP and Alaska Public coverage say it does not lay out evidence of Democratic coordination, and legal experts give it little chance.
- The candidate says he is running on his own because he is unhappy with Sen. Sullivan's record.
- Running legally and drawing votes is not stealing an election. He got 2.5% (4,107 votes) in the August primary. Under ranked-choice voting, a confused voter can rank both Sullivans.
A liberal-leaning voter with a Democratic-aligned consultant may well hope to help Peltola. But the claim that he is there only because Democrats want to steal the election asserts a proven party plot and a crime. Neither has been shown, and both are denied.
Ballot Measure 2 on the November 2026 general election ballot would repeal ranked-choice voting, the nonpartisan open primary, and 2020 campaign disclosure rules. A yes vote approves the repeal. A similar repeal failed in 2024, 49.9% to 50.1%.
No measure exists for ranking what a president has 'delivered' to each state, and no fact-checker has rated this claim. Still, there is real evidence that Alaska got unusually focused attention, along with real costs and credit that belongs to others.
What supports the claim:
- On January 20, 2025, Trump signed an Alaska-specific executive order, 'Unleashing Alaska's Extraordinary Resource Potential.'
- Interior opened 1.56 million acres of the ANWR coastal plain to leasing and reopened about 82% of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska.
- The Ambler Road was approved in October 2025. Old land orders were lifted in February 2026, and 1.4 million acres went to the state in May 2026 for Ambler Road and Alaska LNG.
- The White House's October 13, 2026 fact sheet lists more:
- $150 million in Defense Production Act money for a power line
- a South Korean pledge that includes $54 billion for an Alaska gas pipeline (Seoul says it is still judging whether the project pays)
- hundreds of millions in military construction
- Alaska's first-year Rural Health Transformation award was $272 million. That is second to Texas in total but the largest per person in the nation.
- Sen. Dan Sullivan has said 'no state fared better' from the 2025 budget law. That is a partisan claim, not a measured ranking.
What cuts against it:
- Several of the biggest Alaska wins in the 2025 law were negotiated by Lisa Murkowski, the senator this post attacks. They include the SNAP cost-share delay, the tax break for whaling captains, and raising the rural hospital fund to $50 billion. CNN and NPR covered how she won them.
- The rural health formula splits half the money equally among states ($100 million each). That alone favors small-population states like Alaska, whatever the president does.
- Much of the energy promise had not paid off by the post date. Interest in NPR-A leases has been low, the LNG project is not financed, and the road is not built.
- Federal policy also cost Alaska:
- The public broadcasting rescission hit rural and tribal Alaska stations that depend on it for up to half their budgets. Murkowski voted no.
- The Alaska Hospital and Healthcare Association estimates about 34,000 Alaskans will lose Medicaid.
- NOAA cuts, the trade fight with Canada, and diesel near $6 a gallon have squeezed fishermen.
- Alaska is not the only state singled out. Executive Order 14181, signed January 24, 2025, dealt with California water.
Alaska has had more targeted presidential attention than most states. But 'more than any other state' cannot be shown, and the claim leaves out both the costs and the share of credit owed to Congress.
No contradictions with other posts detected yet.
A namesake candidate becomes a stolen election
The post went up at 11:13 p.m. Eastern on Saturday, October 24 (daylight time runs until November 1). Whether he was in Washington or at Mar-a-Lago, both are on Eastern time, so this was late at night. The graphic attached to it shows a sample Alaska Senate ballot with two Sullivans on it, "Sullivan, Dan S. (Registered Republican) Incumbent" and "Sullivan, Daniel J. Jr." with no party, under a red "SCAM!" banner. The text bundles three grievances into one paragraph: Murkowski's reaction to his earlier attack on ranked-choice voting, the namesake candidate, and the Ballot Measure 2 repeal vote.
The argument rests on a swap of causes. The voter confusion the image shows comes from two people with nearly the same name on one ballot. That would happen under plurality voting too. Yet the post blames it on "the Ranked Choice Voting Ballot," calling it "a TOTAL DEMOCRAT SCAM meant to confuse the Voter." A real local oddity (Alaska's Division of Elections did try to remove the namesake, and a court kept him on) gets turned into proof of a partisan plot against the voting system. Then it is escalated to "the Democrats want to steal the Election" and "this impending, tragic crime." The crime is placed in the future and stated as near-certain, which frames any Sullivan loss as stolen before a vote is counted. That is preemptive delegitimization.
Murkowski as the disloyal insider
The trigger is named in the post: Murkowski "is upset because I revealed what everyone knows." Public criticism from a Republican senator is the injury, and the reply is all devaluation: "The Republicans' Worst Senator, by far," "a DISGRACE to Alaska and our Country," "You just don't get any worse!" Her legitimacy is attacked at its source ("only got elected because of Corrupt Ranked Choice Voting"). Then comes a motive he cannot know: "Murkowski probably wants that to happen, not wanting the DOJ to file a Lawsuit." The word "probably" is the only hedge in the paragraph. It lets him attribute a wish for an election crime to a sitting senator of his own party without claiming it outright. This is splitting at the level of the party itself: Sullivan is the loyal Republican, Murkowski is lumped in with the "Dumocrats." Paranoid features show in that move, where disagreement over an election rule becomes complicity in theft.
The gift and its withdrawal
The long parenthetical is the most idiosyncratic part of the post. In the middle of the opening attack, he stops to say Alaska is "A State for which I produced, on a continuing basis, Billions and Billions of Dollars, and which Crooked Joe Biden and the Dumocrats had totally shut down — Then I came back, and delivered even more!" It is a compact redemption story with himself as the agent: prosperity, Biden's shutdown, his return, more prosperity. Later he repeats it as "I have delivered more for Alaska than I have for any other State." The close turns that redemption into a conditional threat: "if that happens, everything we've done for Alaska will come to an immediate hault." Benefits are cast as personal gifts that can be withdrawn if the state's voters choose wrongly. "All I'm asking for is a FAIR AND HONEST ELECTION!" puts a modest-sounding request on top of the threat, a pairing of entitlement and coercion. The grandiose state (the producer of billions) and the aggrieved state (the benefactor betrayed by a disloyal senator) alternate within a few lines.
Defenses: projection is the most likely reading of the "steal the Election" framing. The complaint is about a ballot that might cost his candidate votes, and it is recast as the other side's theft. Distortion is plain in the RCV causation swap. Rationalization appears in "FAIR AND HONEST," which presents a partisan repeal campaign as a neutral appeal for integrity.
Rhetorical construction
Familiar devices: the epithet "Crooked Joe Biden," the coinage "Dumocrats," "Billions and Billions," honorific capitals ("the Great State of Alaska," "the Great People of Alaska"), and an ALL-CAPS call to action ("VOTE 'YES' AGAINST RANKED CHOICE VOTING, on Ballot Measure 2. SAVE ALASKA!"). The image does the work of an exhibit, and "SCAM!" in red supplies the verdict before the reader has looked at the ballot. The post names a private citizen, "Daniel J. Sullivan, Jr.," a former teacher, and says he is "only there because the Democrats want to steal the Election." It sits next to reported DOJ grand jury subpoenas and Trump's September suggestion that DOJ might bring a case. A head of state is casting a specific private individual as the instrument of an "impending, tragic crime" and calling for federal legal action. That is the main basis for the elevated danger rating. There is no violent imagery and no call to physical action, so the risk lies in pointing supporters' hostility at a named, unprotected person, not in mobilization.
Who wrote it
Several markers point to Trump himself: the 11 p.m. timing, the misspelling "hault," the sentence-length parenthetical that hijacks the opening attack, the awkward blend "VOTE 'YES' AGAINST RANKED CHOICE VOTING" (yes on a repeal merged with "against" RCV), "probably" as a speculative aside, and the habitual "President DONALD J. TRUMP" sign-off. The policy content is accurate in one place: Ballot Measure 2 is the right number, and "yes" is the repeal side. Campaign staff could have supplied that detail. The image is a prepared graphic, probably made by staff or allies, and it fits the text closely, so this may have been a coordinated campaign item that he wrote up himself.
Language
"Hault" for "halt" and the "YES AGAINST" blend are mild production slips. Neither is outside his documented baseline: misspellings and stacked parentheticals appear in his 2012-2016 tweets as well. The parenthetical runs long (about 40 words inserted between a subject and its verb), but he returns to the original sentence afterward ("who only got elected because..."), so the thread holds. No name confusion: he separates the two Sullivans correctly, even though they are the very confusion he is complaining about.
Claims against the record
Murkowski's 2022 win came with a narrow first-round lead (about 43.4% to Tshibaka's 42.6%), widened to 53.7% after ranked-choice tabulation. The top-four open primary arguably mattered more than ranking itself, but "only got elected because" overstates what the count shows. Biden's administration canceled ANWR leases and restricted NPR-A development, but it also approved the Willow project, so "totally shut down" is false as stated. RCV was adopted by Alaska voters in 2020, years before the namesake filed, and the namesake's effect does not depend on ranking.
Fact Verification
| Claim | Verdict | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| "Lisa Murkowski only got elected because of ranked-choice voting" | Mostly False | In the 2022 general election Murkowski led the first round with about 43.4% to Kelly Tshibaka's 42.6%, then won 53.7% to 46.3% after ranked-choice tabulation. The top-four open primary got her onto the general ballot without a closed Republican primary, which arguably helped, but she was ahead before any ranking was applied. She also won in 2010 (write-in) and 2016 (plurality), before RCV existed. |
| "Biden and the Democrats had totally shut down Alaska" | False | The Biden administration canceled ANWR oil leases and limited development in the National Petroleum Reserve. It also approved ConocoPhillips' Willow project in March 2023, the largest new oil development in Alaska in decades. Restrictions on some projects are not a shutdown of the state. |
| "The ranked-choice ballot is a Democrat scam meant to confuse voters so Senator Dan Sullivan loses votes to Daniel J. Sullivan Jr." | False | Alaska voters adopted ranked-choice voting and open primaries by ballot measure in 2020, years before the namesake filed. The confusion shown in the attached ballot comes from two candidates with nearly the same name, which would occur under any ballot format. The Alaska Division of Elections, overseen by a Republican lieutenant governor, tried to remove the namesake, and a Superior Court judge kept him on the ballot. |
| "Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. is only on the ballot because the Democrats want to steal the election" | Mostly False | Some of the background is documented, but nothing shows the Democratic Party put him on the ballot, and the courts have held that his place on it is legal. |
Circumstantial facts that support suspicion:
- He is a retired Petersburg teacher and former Forest Service employee. He registered as a Republican the same day he filed, three days before the deadline. He says he had been in the Alaskan Independence Party since 1980.
- He told a New York Times reporter (republished by Election Law Blog and DNYUZ) that he never voted for Trump, voted for the Democratic nominee in the last three presidential elections, voted for Mary Peltola in 2022 and 2024, and would probably prefer Peltola to the incumbent in November.
- FEC records found by Alaska's News Source show a Petersburg Dan Sullivan gave Peltola $100 in August 2022 and $30 in August 2024 through ActBlue.
- He hired Amber Lee to help file his candidacy and launch the campaign. Lee is a consultant who has worked for Democratic candidates and publicly backs Peltola. Her name is in the metadata of his launch press release. She is also an unpaid board member of the 907 Initiative, a progressive group that has spent over $1 million against Sen. Sullivan.
- The state Division of Elections removed him in June, finding his filing was not made in good faith.
- NBC and Reuters reported in July and August, citing unnamed sources, a state and federal investigation and grand jury subpoenas to witnesses tied to his campaign. The possible charges named were wire fraud and conspiracy against voting rights.
- On September 9, a Republican-linked group, Americans for Public Trust, filed an FEC complaint alleging he coordinated with the 907 Initiative.
What cuts against the claim:
- Anchorage Superior Court Judge Thomas Matthews ruled the removal unlawful because Alaska law has no 'good faith' standard. The Alaska Supreme Court upheld that ruling on June 29.
- The Peltola campaign, the Alaska Democratic Party and the DSCC all deny any involvement.
- Alaska's News Source called the small donations 'the only documented link' to Peltola and said no direct coordination by Peltola or her campaign has been established.
- The Times reporter who interviewed him found no case-closing evidence of a Democratic plot.
- The U.S. Attorney's Office has never confirmed the probe, and as of October 24 there were no charges or target letters.
- The FEC lacks a quorum, so the complaint is unresolved.
- The DOJ civil suit filed October 22 calls his candidacy 'frivolous' and aimed at helping Peltola. That is an allegation. AP and Alaska Public coverage say it does not lay out evidence of Democratic coordination, and legal experts give it little chance.
- The candidate says he is running on his own because he is unhappy with Sen. Sullivan's record.
- Running legally and drawing votes is not stealing an election. He got 2.5% (4,107 votes) in the August primary. Under ranked-choice voting, a confused voter can rank both Sullivans.
A liberal-leaning voter with a Democratic-aligned consultant may well hope to help Peltola. But the claim that he is there only because Democrats want to steal the election asserts a proven party plot and a crime. Neither has been shown, and both are denied. | | "A yes vote on Alaska Ballot Measure 2 is a vote against ranked-choice voting" | True | Ballot Measure 2 on the November 2026 general election ballot would repeal ranked-choice voting, the nonpartisan open primary, and 2020 campaign disclosure rules. A yes vote approves the repeal. A similar repeal failed in 2024, 49.9% to 50.1%. | | "Trump has delivered more for Alaska than for any other state" | Half True | No measure exists for ranking what a president has 'delivered' to each state, and no fact-checker has rated this claim. Still, there is real evidence that Alaska got unusually focused attention, along with real costs and credit that belongs to others.
What supports the claim:
- On January 20, 2025, Trump signed an Alaska-specific executive order, 'Unleashing Alaska's Extraordinary Resource Potential.'
- Interior opened 1.56 million acres of the ANWR coastal plain to leasing and reopened about 82% of the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska.
- The Ambler Road was approved in October 2025. Old land orders were lifted in February 2026, and 1.4 million acres went to the state in May 2026 for Ambler Road and Alaska LNG.
- The White House's October 13, 2026 fact sheet lists more:
- $150 million in Defense Production Act money for a power line
- a South Korean pledge that includes $54 billion for an Alaska gas pipeline (Seoul says it is still judging whether the project pays)
- hundreds of millions in military construction
- Alaska's first-year Rural Health Transformation award was $272 million. That is second to Texas in total but the largest per person in the nation.
- Sen. Dan Sullivan has said 'no state fared better' from the 2025 budget law. That is a partisan claim, not a measured ranking.
What cuts against it:
- Several of the biggest Alaska wins in the 2025 law were negotiated by Lisa Murkowski, the senator this post attacks. They include the SNAP cost-share delay, the tax break for whaling captains, and raising the rural hospital fund to $50 billion. CNN and NPR covered how she won them.
- The rural health formula splits half the money equally among states ($100 million each). That alone favors small-population states like Alaska, whatever the president does.
- Much of the energy promise had not paid off by the post date. Interest in NPR-A leases has been low, the LNG project is not financed, and the road is not built.
- Federal policy also cost Alaska:
- The public broadcasting rescission hit rural and tribal Alaska stations that depend on it for up to half their budgets. Murkowski voted no.
- The Alaska Hospital and Healthcare Association estimates about 34,000 Alaskans will lose Medicaid.
- NOAA cuts, the trade fight with Canada, and diesel near $6 a gallon have squeezed fishermen.
- Alaska is not the only state singled out. Executive Order 14181, signed January 24, 2025, dealt with California water.
Alaska has had more targeted presidential attention than most states. But 'more than any other state' cannot be shown, and the claim leaves out both the costs and the share of credit owed to Congress. |
Overall Veracity: 32%
Post from Truth Social
The Republicans’ Worst Senator, by far, Lisa Murkowski, of the Great State of Alaska (A State for which I produced, on a continuing basis, Billions and Billions of Dollars, and which Crooked Joe Biden and the Dumocrats had totally shut down — Then I came back, and delivered even more!), who only got elected because of Corrupt Ranked Choice Voting, is upset because I revealed what everyone knows, that the Ranked Choice Voting Ballot is a TOTAL DEMOCRAT SCAM meant to confuse the Voter so that Senator Dan Sullivan will lose Votes to a man who has never participated in Politics before, named Daniel J. Sullivan, Jr. He is only there because the Democrats want to steal the Election, and Murkowski probably wants that to happen, not wanting the DOJ to file a Lawsuit in order to stop this impending, tragic crime. I have delivered more for Alaska than I have for any other State, and all I’m asking for is a FAIR AND HONEST ELECTION! Lisa Murkowski is a DISGRACE to Alaska and our Country. You just don’t get any worse! I hope the Great People of Alaska understand what is happening. The Democrats are trying to steal this important Republican Seat and, if that happens, everything we’ve done for Alaska will come to an immediate hault. VOTE “YES” AGAINST RANKED CHOICE VOTING, on Ballot Measure 2. SAVE ALASKA! President DONALD J. TRUMP
What the image shows meme
A graphic on a white background. Large red bold text "SCAM!" sits across the top. Below it is a sample ranked-choice ballot section headed "United States Senator", with a grid of five choice columns (1st to 5th) and empty oval bubbles. The rows list four candidates and a write-in line. Two candidates are named Sullivan: "Sullivan, Daniel J. Jr." with no party label, and "Sullivan, Dan S." labeled as a registered Republican incumbent. The image asserts or implies that this ranked-choice ballot is a scam. No bubbles are filled in.
Text in image: SCAM! United States Senator 1st Choice 2nd Choice 3rd Choice 4th Choice 5th Choice Heikes, Gerald L. (Registered Republican) Peltola, Mary (Registered Democrat) Sullivan, Daniel J. Jr. Sullivan, Dan S. (Registered Republican) Incumbent Write-in: 1 2 3 4 5 (superscript numbers beside each row's bubbles)
Described automatically. The words above are a machine's reading of the picture, not Trump's.