Video transcript
Yeah, you know, we've had really good Democratic polls coming up from Ohio, Michigan, Iowa. And you know, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me four times, I just have to ask the question, could it happen again? Because just take a look at this. Okay, Midwest polling, Mrs. GOP outperformed September polls by in the major 2024 races, that is president and Senate in the states that had a Senate race. In Iowa, where the Democrats have been getting really good polls, Republicans outperformed their September polls by nine points back in 2024. How about Ohio? Six points. How about Michigan? Five points. And I will note that the leads that the Democrats have, and all of these races right now, are under how much the GOP outperformed back in 2024. So you look at this and you go, you know what? Maybe we should just hold on a second here, because we've seen this dance before, and it was not a dance that Democrats like when the votes were actually casting count. Okay, but a skeptic could look at this and say, Harry, this is 2024. Donald Trump was on the ballot then. What about races where the president's not on the ballot? Yeah, exactly right. So you know, 2024, 2020, 2016, Donald Trump outperformed in these three states by significant margins. But what about a midterm election? You can go back to Donald Trump's first midterm election, and it's the same exact story. Look at this, the GOP outperformed September polls in the major 2018 statewide races by six points in Iowa, six points in Ohio, and eight points in Michigan. The bottom line is this, over the last few cycles, whether it be 2018, 2016, 2020, 2024, Republicans have outperformed their September polls by at least five points in all these three states where Democrats right now are ahead, but not by a wide enough margin whereby if Republicans outperform their September polls again, it could become very, very interesting.
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