# Post x_930346433177378817

- Post ID: `x_930346433177378817`
- Platform: X (Twitter)
- Posted: 2017-11-14T08:07:29.000Z (UTC)
- Deleted: no
- Repost: no
- Canonical URL: https://trump.fm/post/x_930346433177378817
- Analysis page: https://trump.fm/post/x_930346433177378817/analysis
- Audio narration: https://static.trump.fm/audio/x_930346433177378817.mp3 (a synthesized voice reading the post text, not a recording)

## Post text

> One of the most accurate polls last time around. But #FakeNews likes to say we’re in the 30’s. They are wrong. Some people think numbers could be in the 50's. Together, WE will MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! https://t.co/YhrwkdObhP

## Engagement

- Likes: 65,280
- Reposts: 15,736
- Replies: 0
- Views: unknown
- Metrics collected: 2026-01-31T23:43:13.385Z (UTC)

# Analysis

_Machine-generated by trump.fm on 2026-03-12T01:41:12.988Z (UTC): a model's reading of this post, not his words. Its psychological terms describe the language, not a clinical assessment of him._

## Psychological Analysis: Polling Numbers Defense

### Context
Trump is returning from his Asia trip (Philippines/ASEAN summit). Posted at 8:07 UTC on Nov 14, 2017. He was in the Philippines at this time (UTC+8), making this approximately 4:07 PM local time — business hours, though Trump was actively tweeting throughout the day.

### Authorship
The post has mixed signals. The emotional reactivity ("They are wrong"), hedging language ("Some people think"), and the characteristic vague attribution pattern are authentic Trump markers. The linked poll image and hashtag formatting suggest possible aide involvement, but the defensive tone and stream-of-consciousness quality lean authentic.

### Psychological Analysis
This is a textbook supply-seeking post with defensive undertones. The core trigger is unfavorable polling coverage — a narcissistic injury via unfavorable comparison. The structure reveals the classic pattern: (1) cite favorable evidence, (2) attack unfavorable sources, (3) inflate with vague upward claim, (4) rally cry.

"Some people think numbers could be in the 50's" is a characteristic Trump construction — the anonymous "some people" attribution allows inflating claims without accountability. His actual approval was roughly 38% (Gallup) at this time, making the "50's" claim a significant distortion.

### Defense Mechanisms
- **Denial**: Dismissing accurate polling as fake
- **Distortion**: "Some people think numbers could be in the 50's" — reshaping reality
- **Splitting**: Good polls vs. "Fake News" polls

### Rhetorical Techniques
The post follows a four-beat rhetorical structure: credential → attack → inflate → unite. The closing MAGA rallying cry transforms a defensive post into an aspirational one.

## Fact Verification

| Claim | Verdict | Evidence |
|-------|---------|----------|
| "One of the most accurate polls last time around" | **Unverifiable** | Without seeing the linked poll, cannot assess which poll is referenced. Rasmussen was frequently cited by Trump and did perform relatively well in 2016 but 'most accurate' is an overstatement. |
| "Approval numbers are not in the 30s" | **Mostly False** | Trump's approval in mid-November 2017 was approximately 38% (Gallup), 39% (Reuters/Ipsos). Technically high 30s, making his denial misleading. |
| "Some people think numbers could be in the 50s" | **Mostly False** | No credible poll had Trump at or near 50% approval in November 2017. Rasmussen, his most favorable pollster, had him around 44-46%. |

Overall Veracity: 30%

## Authorship Analysis

**Uncertain** (score: 70%)

### Indicators

- Defensive emotional reactivity
- Vague 'some people' attribution
- Stream-of-consciousness hedging
- Business hours in Philippines (4 PM local)
- Mixed: hashtag formatting suggests possible aide polish

## Psychological Profile

### State

**Mixed State**

**Trigger:** Narcissistic Injury — Criticism (Media reporting low approval numbers)

Sentiment: -0.15

### Clinical

**Malignant Narcissism:**
- Narcissistic: 60%
- Antisocial: 20%
- Paranoid: 30%
- Sadism: 5%

**Defense Mechanisms:**
- denial (pathological)
- distortion (pathological)
- splitting (immature)

**Cognitive Complexity:**
- Complexity: 40%

**Parasocial Techniques:**
- Inclusive 'WE' language to bond with audience
- Shared victimhood against media
- Rally cry as group identity marker

## Danger Assessment

**NONE**

### Gaslighting

- Dismissing accurate polling data as 'Fake News'
- Replacing documented numbers (high 30s) with fabricated range (50s)
- Attacking credibility of information sources reporting factual data

## Fact Checks (3)

_The model's verdicts from 2026-03-12._

> One of the most accurate polls last time around

**UNVERIFIABLE**

Without seeing the linked poll, cannot assess which poll is referenced. Rasmussen was frequently cited by Trump and did perform relatively well in 2016 but 'most accurate' is an overstatement.

> Approval numbers are not in the 30s

**MOSTLY FALSE**

Trump's approval in mid-November 2017 was approximately 38% (Gallup), 39% (Reuters/Ipsos). Technically high 30s, making his denial misleading.

> Some people think numbers could be in the 50s

**MOSTLY FALSE**

No credible poll had Trump at or near 50% approval in November 2017. Rasmussen, his most favorable pollster, had him around 44-46%.

Overall Veracity: 30%

## Tags

- polling-defense (90%)
- media-attack (70%)
- reality-distortion (80%)
- supply-seeking (70%)
- rally-cry (50%)

## That day

_From trump.fm's machine-generated digest of the day, not his words._

**Buoyant Trump Wraps Asia Tour, Eyes Tax Victory From Manila**

Trump spent the day in the Philippines wrapping up his 12-day Asia tour, posting upbeat messages about trade deals, tax cuts, and diplomatic wins. The mood was consistently self-congratulatory and calm, with no flashes of anger. The only notable shift came with a brief pushback against polling numbers he called "Fake News," claiming his approval could be in the 50s. He teased a "major statement" from the White House upon his return but gave no details.

Full digest for 2017-11-14: https://trump.fm/date/2017-11-14/analysis

## Citation

- APA: Trump, D. J. (2017, November 14). One of the most accurate polls last time around.... [Social media post]. X (Twitter). trump.fm. https://trump.fm/post/x_930346433177378817
- MLA: Trump, Donald J. "One of the most accurate polls last time around. But..." X (Twitter), 14 Nov. 2017. trump.fm, https://trump.fm/post/x_930346433177378817. Accessed 11 Oct. 2026.
- Chicago: Donald J. Trump, "One of the most accurate polls last time around. But...," X (Twitter), November 14, 2017, archived at trump.fm, https://trump.fm/post/x_930346433177378817.

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