# Post x_815992069412057088

- Post ID: `x_815992069412057088`
- Platform: X (Twitter)
- Posted: 2017-01-02T18:44:04.000Z (UTC)
- Deleted: no
- Repost: no
- Canonical URL: https://trump.fm/post/x_815992069412057088
- Analysis page: https://trump.fm/post/x_815992069412057088/analysis
- Audio narration: https://static.trump.fm/audio/x_815992069412057088.mp3 (a synthesized voice reading the post text, not a recording)

## Post text

> I thought and felt I would win big, easily over the fabled 270 (306). When they cancelled fireworks, they knew, and so did I.

## Engagement

- Likes: 62,670
- Reposts: 13,437
- Replies: 0
- Views: unknown
- Metrics collected: 2026-01-31T23:43:13.392Z (UTC)

# Analysis

_Machine-generated by trump.fm on 2026-03-11T08:31:54.933Z (UTC): a model's reading of this post, not his words. Its psychological terms describe the language, not a clinical assessment of him._

## Analysis: Post x_815992069412057088 (2017-01-02)

### Context
This is a continuation of the previous post ("Various media outlets and pundits say that I thought I was going to lose the election. Wrong..."). Trump is responding to media narratives suggesting he expected to lose, asserting he always knew he'd win. The "cancelled fireworks" refers to Clinton's campaign cancelling their planned election-night fireworks display at the Javits Center days before the election.

### Authorship
Posted at 1:44 PM EST (Trump was in New York/Mar-a-Lago transition period). Business hours, but the stream-of-consciousness style, parenthetical insertion of "306," and emotional self-referential content are authentic Trump markers.

### Psychological Analysis
This is classic supply-seeking and narcissistic injury response. Media narratives questioning his confidence triggered a need to assert omniscient foreknowledge. The claim "I thought and felt I would win big" combines cognitive and emotional certainty—he needs both channels validated. The parenthetical "(306)" is a compulsive specificity, ensuring the audience registers the magnitude.

"When they cancelled fireworks, they knew, and so did I" creates a narrative of shared secret knowledge—the enemy (Clinton campaign) confirmed what Trump already knew. This is retrospective grandiosity: rewriting uncertainty as certainty.

### Rhetorical Devices
- Retrospective omniscience claim
- In-group knowledge ("they knew, and so did I")
- Specific number deployment for credibility

## Fact Verification

| Claim | Verdict | Evidence |
|-------|---------|----------|
| "Won 306 electoral votes" | **True** | Trump won 306 electoral votes in the 2016 election (304 after two faithless electors) |
| "Clinton campaign cancelled fireworks before election" | **True** | The Clinton campaign cancelled a planned election-night fireworks display over the Hudson River a few days before November 8 |
| "He always thought and felt he would win big" | **Mostly False** | Multiple reports indicate Trump's team was preparing for possible defeat, and Trump himself appeared surprised on election night. His internal polls showed him trailing in key states. |

Overall Veracity: 73%

## Authorship Analysis

**Self-Written** (score: 80%)

### Indicators

- Stream-of-consciousness continuation from previous tweet
- Parenthetical number insertion (306)
- Emotional self-referential content
- Business hours but reactive/personal topic

## Psychological Profile

### State

**Grandiose State**

**Trigger:** Narcissistic Injury — Exposure (Media outlets and pundits suggesting he expected to lose)

Sentiment: +0.60

**Mildly Hypomanic**
- Grandiose self-assessment
- Elevated confidence in retrospective narrative

### Clinical

**Malignant Narcissism:**
- Narcissistic: 70%
- Antisocial: 20%
- Paranoid: 20%
- Sadism: 10%

**Defense Mechanisms:**
- distortion (pathological)
- rationalization (neurotic)

**Cognitive Complexity:**
- Complexity: 45%

**Parasocial Techniques:**
- Sharing 'insider knowledge' to create intimacy
- Positioning audience as co-knowers against doubters

## Fact Checks (3)

_The model's verdicts from 2026-03-11._

> Won 306 electoral votes

**TRUE**

Trump won 306 electoral votes in the 2016 election (304 after two faithless electors)

> Clinton campaign cancelled fireworks before election

**TRUE**

The Clinton campaign cancelled a planned election-night fireworks display over the Hudson River a few days before November 8

> He always thought and felt he would win big

**MOSTLY FALSE**

Multiple reports indicate Trump's team was preparing for possible defeat, and Trump himself appeared surprised on election night. His internal polls showed him trailing in key states.

Overall Veracity: 73%

## Tags

- election_victory (90%)
- retrospective_certainty (80%)
- supply_seeking (70%)
- media_correction (60%)

## That day

_From trump.fm's machine-generated digest of the day, not his words._

**President-Elect's First Working Day of 2017: Domestic Authority Claims and Nuclear Brinksmanship Preview**

Trump's first full posting day of 2017 was measured and thematically varied, touching on New Year's optimism, Chicago crime, media grievances, and foreign threats. The mood was mostly self-assured, with a brief flash of vanity over an unflattering book cover quickly overshadowed by boastful election recollections. The most consequential moment came in the evening, when he casually declared North Korea's nuclear ambitions "won't happen" — a two-word dismissal of a complex geopolitical crisis that would foreshadow months of escalating personal confrontation with Kim Jong-un.

Full digest for 2017-01-02: https://trump.fm/date/2017-01-02/analysis

## Citation

- APA: Trump, D. J. (2017, January 2). I thought and felt I would win big, easily over... [Social media post]. X (Twitter). trump.fm. https://trump.fm/post/x_815992069412057088
- MLA: Trump, Donald J. "I thought and felt I would win big, easily over the fabled..." X (Twitter), 2 Jan. 2017. trump.fm, https://trump.fm/post/x_815992069412057088. Accessed 9 Oct. 2026.
- Chicago: Donald J. Trump, "I thought and felt I would win big, easily over the fabled...," X (Twitter), January 2, 2017, archived at trump.fm, https://trump.fm/post/x_815992069412057088.

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