# Post x_793421274043285504

- Post ID: `x_793421274043285504`
- Platform: X (Twitter)
- Posted: 2016-11-01T11:55:47.000Z (UTC)
- Deleted: no
- Repost: no
- Canonical URL: https://trump.fm/post/x_793421274043285504
- Analysis page: https://trump.fm/post/x_793421274043285504/analysis
- Audio narration: https://static.trump.fm/audio/x_793421274043285504.mp3 (a synthesized voice reading the post text, not a recording)

## Post text

> Wow, now leading in @ABC /@washingtonpost Poll 46 to 45. Gone up 12 points in two weeks, mostly before the Crooked Hillary blow-up!

## Engagement

- Likes: 39,631
- Reposts: 16,479
- Replies: 0
- Views: unknown
- Metrics collected: 2026-01-31T23:43:13.371Z (UTC)

# Analysis

_Machine-generated by trump.fm on 2026-03-11T06:10:31.549Z (UTC): a model's reading of this post, not his words. Its psychological terms describe the language, not a clinical assessment of him._

## Analysis: Post x_793421274043285504 (2016-11-01)

### Text
"Wow, now leading in @ABC/@washingtonpost Poll 46 to 45. Gone up 12 points in two weeks, mostly before the Crooked Hillary blow-up!"

### Context
One week before Election Day. FBI Director Comey had reopened the Clinton email investigation days earlier. Trump was on a final campaign blitz through battleground states. The ABC/Washington Post tracking poll had indeed tightened significantly.

### Authorship
Posted at ~7:55 AM ET. Early morning but not pre-dawn. The style is classic Trump: "Wow" opener, specific poll numbers (he obsessively tracked polls), the branded epithet "Crooked Hillary," exclamation point, and the boastful framing. The casual "blow-up!" phrasing is authentic voice. Likely composed by Trump himself while consuming morning media.

### Psychological Analysis
This is a supply-seeking post in grandiose narcissistic mode. The trigger is positive poll movement—narcissistic supply from external validation. The key rhetorical move is the qualifier "mostly before the Crooked Hillary blow-up"—claiming the momentum was already his, independent of Comey's intervention. This serves dual purposes: (1) grandiose self-attribution of the polling shift and (2) implying the numbers will get even better.

### Fact Verification

| Claim | Verdict | Evidence |
|-------|---------|----------|
| "Leading in ABC/Washington Post poll 46 to 45" | **True** | The ABC/WaPo tracking poll did briefly show Trump with a 1-point lead around this date |
| "Gone up 12 points in two weeks" | **Mostly True** | The tracking poll showed dramatic tightening from a significant Clinton lead to a Trump lead over roughly two weeks, though exact magnitude depends on start date chosen |
| "Mostly before the Crooked Hillary blow-up" | **Half True** | Some tightening preceded the Comey letter (Oct 28), but the letter significantly accelerated the shift. Attributing the movement to 'mostly before' overstates pre-Comey momentum. |

Overall Veracity: 77%

## Authorship Analysis

**Self-Written** (score: 85%)

### Indicators

- 'Wow' opener typical of authentic Trump
- Specific poll numbers reflect his known media consumption habits
- Branded epithet 'Crooked Hillary'
- Early morning posting ~7:55 AM ET
- Exclamatory casual tone

## Psychological Profile

### State

**Grandiose State**

**Trigger:** Supply Seeking (ABC/Washington Post tracking poll showing 1-point lead)

Sentiment: +0.75

**Mildly Hypomanic**
- elevated mood
- exclamatory tone
- grandiose self-attribution

### Clinical

**Malignant Narcissism:**
- Narcissistic: 60%
- Antisocial: 10%
- Paranoid: 10%
- Sadism: 15%

**Defense Mechanisms:**
- idealization (immature)
- devaluation (immature)

**Cognitive Complexity:**
- Complexity: 40%

**Parasocial Techniques:**
- sharing insider polling knowledge to create intimacy
- inviting audience to share in excitement

## Fact Checks (3)

_The model's verdicts from 2026-03-11._

> Leading in ABC/Washington Post poll 46 to 45

**TRUE**

The ABC/WaPo tracking poll did briefly show Trump with a 1-point lead around this date

Sources: ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, late October 2016

> Gone up 12 points in two weeks

**MOSTLY TRUE**

The tracking poll showed dramatic tightening from a significant Clinton lead to a Trump lead over roughly two weeks, though exact magnitude depends on start date chosen

Sources: ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll data

> Mostly before the Crooked Hillary blow-up

**HALF TRUE**

Some tightening preceded the Comey letter (Oct 28), but the letter significantly accelerated the shift. Attributing the movement to 'mostly before' overstates pre-Comey momentum.

Sources: FiveThirtyEight polling analysis, 2016

Overall Veracity: 77%

## Tags

- polling (90%)
- campaign_2016 (100%)
- supply_seeking (80%)
- grandiose (60%)
- self_attribution (70%)

## That day

_From trump.fm's machine-generated digest of the day, not his words._

**Disciplined Final-Stretch Campaign Day Rides FBI Email Wave**

A week out from Election Day, Trump ran a tightly focused messaging day hammering Clinton's email scandal from every angle -- the FBI investigation, WikiLeaks dumps, and the Donna Brazile debate-question leak. The mood was confident and campaign-disciplined, buoyed by a poll showing him pulling ahead for the first time. One brief flash of grievance over the Brazile story was the only crack in an otherwise controlled day of rallies, endorsements, and opposition research blasts.

Full digest for 2016-11-01: https://trump.fm/date/2016-11-01/analysis

## Citation

- APA: Trump, D. J. (2016, November 1). Wow, now leading in @ABC /@washingtonpost Poll 46... [Social media post]. X (Twitter). trump.fm. https://trump.fm/post/x_793421274043285504
- MLA: Trump, Donald J. "Wow, now leading in @ABC /@washingtonpost Poll 46 to 45...." X (Twitter), 1 Nov. 2016. trump.fm, https://trump.fm/post/x_793421274043285504. Accessed 9 Oct. 2026.
- Chicago: Donald J. Trump, "Wow, now leading in @ABC /@washingtonpost Poll 46 to 45....," X (Twitter), November 1, 2016, archived at trump.fm, https://trump.fm/post/x_793421274043285504.

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