# Post x_658362790717947904

- Post ID: `x_658362790717947904`
- Platform: X (Twitter)
- Posted: 2015-10-25T19:21:35.000Z (UTC)
- Deleted: no
- Repost: no, but it quotes a tweet by @curtismuddog
- Canonical URL: https://trump.fm/post/x_658362790717947904
- Analysis page: https://trump.fm/post/x_658362790717947904/analysis
- Audio narration: https://static.trump.fm/audio/x_658362790717947904.mp3 (a synthesized voice reading the post text, not a recording)

## Post text

_Quotes @curtismuddog, pasted in quotation marks the way early X retweets were made by hand. The words in quotation marks are @curtismuddog's, not his; a reply of his, if any, follows the closing mark._

> "@curtismuddog:  @ByronYork Latest Poll shows Donald Trump winning 70% of Electoral Vote Against Hillary Clinton! https://t.co/OT98Y8f0GE"

## Engagement

- Likes: 3,020
- Reposts: 1,857
- Replies: 0
- Views: unknown
- Metrics collected: 2026-01-31T23:43:13.342Z (UTC)

# Analysis

_Machine-generated by trump.fm on 2026-03-08T00:11:22.076Z (UTC): a model's reading of this post, not his words. Its psychological terms describe the language, not a clinical assessment of him._

## Post Analysis: x_658362790717947904 (2015-10-25)

### Overview
This post is a retweet of a supporter (@curtismuddog) citing @ByronYork, claiming a poll shows Trump winning 70% of the Electoral Vote against Hillary Clinton. It is a textbook supply-seeking retweet: no original language, pure amplification of a flattering — and almost certainly non-credible — poll claim.

### Authorship
Timing converts to ~3:21 PM EDT — mid-afternoon business hours, which is a weak aide indicator. However, the content type (flattering poll amplification, raw unedited retweet from a private supporter account) is extensively documented as personally curated by Trump. No polished language or event announcement structure. Classified as likely authentic with medium confidence.

### Psychological State: Grandiose
Post reflects a stable grandiose narcissistic state. No injury, no rage, no vulnerability. The psychological function is pure supply consumption and redistribution — publicly absorbing a validation claim and broadcasting it to his audience. The 70% figure is wildly inconsistent with credible October 2015 general election polling, yet is amplified without any critical filter, consistent with distortion and denial defenses in service of grandiose self-narrative.

### Fact Verification

| Claim | Verdict | Evidence |
|-------|---------|----------|
| "Latest Poll shows Donald Trump winning 70% of Electoral Vote Against Hillary Clinton" | **False** | No credible polling methodology in October 2015 produced a result remotely close to this figure. Major pollsters (Quinnipiac, NBC/WSJ, Fox News) showed a competitive or Clinton-leading general election matchup. A 70% electoral vote projection would require Trump winning virtually every swing state by wide margins — inconsistent with any legitimate polling of the period. Source is a private Twitter account (@curtismuddog) with no journalistic standing. Almost certainly an online opt-in poll, Republican-only subsample, or fabricated/distorted figure. |

Overall Veracity: 0%

## Authorship Analysis

**Uncertain** (score: 65%)

### Indicators

- Mid-afternoon EDT timing (3:21 PM) — weak aide indicator
- Raw unedited retweet from private supporter account — authentic indicator
- No polished language, event announcements, or professional formatting
- Content type (flattering poll amplification) consistent with personally curated Trump retweets
- No added commentary — pure amplification

## Psychological Profile

### State

**Grandiose State**

**Trigger:** Supply Seeking (Supporter poll claim (@curtismuddog via @ByronYork))

Sentiment: +0.70

### Clinical

**Malignant Narcissism:**
- Narcissistic: 50%
- Antisocial: 15%
- Paranoid: 0%
- Sadism: 0%

**Defense Mechanisms:**
- denial (pathological)
- distortion (pathological)
- rationalization (neurotic)

**Cognitive Complexity:**
- Complexity: 10%

**Parasocial Techniques:**
- Public consumption of flattering poll data signals to followers that his dominance is empirically confirmed
- Retweet of supporter content creates parasocial reciprocity loop — followers feel seen and validated

## Danger Assessment

**NONE**

### Gaslighting

- Amplifying a likely unscientific poll as credible electoral data without source qualification
- Constructing false consensus through selective data amplification — trains followers to adopt distorted view of electoral standing

## Fact Checks (1)

_The model's verdicts from 2026-03-08._

> Latest Poll shows Donald Trump winning 70% of Electoral Vote Against Hillary Clinton

**FALSE**

No credible polling methodology in October 2015 produced a result remotely close to this figure. Major pollsters (Quinnipiac, NBC/WSJ, Fox News) showed a competitive or Clinton-leading general election matchup. A 70% electoral vote projection would require Trump winning virtually every swing state by wide margins — inconsistent with any legitimate polling of the period. Source is a private Twitter account (@curtismuddog) with no journalistic standing. Almost certainly an online opt-in poll, Republican-only subsample, or fabricated/distorted figure.

Sources: General knowledge of 2015 polling landscape; no WebSearch required

Overall Veracity: 0%

## Tags

- supply_seeking (90%)
- poll_amplification (90%)
- grandiose_state (80%)
- false_precision (85%)
- epistemic_closure (70%)
- inevitability_framing (80%)
- distortion_defense (70%)
- retweet_no_original_language (60%)

## That day

_From trump.fm's machine-generated digest of the day, not his words._

**Sunday Show Victory Lap: 49 Posts of Poll Celebration, Rival Demolition, and Preemptive Credit-Claiming**

Trump spent a busy Sunday celebrating strong poll numbers across multiple early states, doing the rounds on CNN, ABC, and CBS morning shows, and launching sustained attacks on Jeb Bush and Ben Carson. The mood was overwhelmingly self-congratulatory, with dozens of supporter retweets amplifying praise and a bold -- and largely unfounded -- claim that Ford Motor was keeping production in the U.S. because of his campaign pressure. The only real flash of edge came in a late-afternoon post warning that Carson, Bush, and Rubio would let the country be "overrun" by illegal immigration. Volume was high at 49 posts, but most were low-effort retweets, and the tone stayed controlled and expansive rather than angry.

Full digest for 2015-10-25: https://trump.fm/date/2015-10-25/analysis

## Citation

- APA: Trump, D. J. (2015, October 25). "@curtismuddog: @ByronYork Latest Poll shows... [Social media post]. X (Twitter). trump.fm. https://trump.fm/post/x_658362790717947904
- MLA: Trump, Donald J. ""@curtismuddog: @ByronYork Latest Poll shows Donald Trump..." X (Twitter), 25 Oct. 2015. trump.fm, https://trump.fm/post/x_658362790717947904. Accessed 9 Oct. 2026.
- Chicago: Donald J. Trump, ""@curtismuddog: @ByronYork Latest Poll shows Donald Trump...," X (Twitter), October 25, 2015, archived at trump.fm, https://trump.fm/post/x_658362790717947904.

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