# Post x_384780213990612992 - Post ID: `x_384780213990612992` - Platform: X (Twitter) - Posted: 2013-09-30T20:42:06.000Z (UTC) - Deleted: no - Repost: no - Canonical URL: https://trump.fm/post/x_384780213990612992 - Analysis page: https://trump.fm/post/x_384780213990612992/analysis - Audio narration: https://static.trump.fm/audio/x_384780213990612992.mp3 (a synthesized voice reading the post text, not a recording) ## Post text > Since stop & frisk was struck down, gun shootings & victims have spiked-- while gun seizures have decreased. http://t.co/aIUe2dSaNf ## Engagement - Likes: 29 - Reposts: 71 - Replies: 0 - Views: unknown - Metrics collected: 2026-01-31T23:43:13.280Z (UTC) # Analysis _Machine-generated by trump.fm on 2026-02-26T16:23:00.594Z (UTC): a model's reading of this post, not his words. Its psychological terms describe the language, not a clinical assessment of him._ ## Summary This September 2013 post documents an early, low-intensity instance of Trump deploying cherry-picked crime statistics to advocate for stop-and-frisk policing following the Floyd v. City of New York ruling. The psychological pattern is characteristic but subdued: the pragmatic truth-teller presenting 'the data' to vindicate his prior position while implicitly condemning judicial overreach. The rhetorical core is a post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy — 28-day post-ruling NYPD data (shootings +13%, victims +9%, seizures −17%) is presented as causal evidence, without the long-term context showing crime continued its secular decline as stops fell 98% over the following four years. Authorship is ambiguous; business-hours timing and polished format suggest aide involvement, while the topic represents an authentic long-running personal interest. Clinically, the post is unremarkable — none of the narcissistic rage, paranoid features, or cognitive markers visible in later posts are evident here. Its primary research value is longitudinal: this 2013 tweet documents the early formation of a law-and-order narrative frame — functioning policy, activist court, predictable harm — that Trump reproduced nearly verbatim in the September 2016 presidential debate and across his campaign. The rhetorical and psychological template was stable across at least 13 years, suggesting genuine ideological commitment rather than opportunistic positioning. ## Authorship Attribution **Post timestamp:** 20:42 UTC = **16:42 EDT (4:42 PM, New York)** Trump was almost certainly in New York on this date; no travel events are indicated. The 4:42 PM EDT timing falls squarely within business hours, which is the primary indicator of aide-drafted content. Supporting aide-attribution: no typos, fully correct grammar, data-citation format, and link-sharing pattern consistent with curated content distribution. Against aide-attribution: stop-and-frisk was a topic of demonstrably authentic personal interest to Trump throughout this period and into his 2016 campaign; the implicit "I told you so" vindication framing is consistent with his voice; the post is brief and punchy rather than formally composed. **Verdict:** Ambiguous, slight lean toward aide-curated (score: 0.40). Most likely scenario is aide identified the CBS New York article and drafted or triggered the post, possibly with Trump's approval or direction, given his established interest in this specific policy. --- ## Context: The Floyd Ruling and Linked Article On August 12, 2013 — seven weeks before this post — Judge Scheindlin ruled in *Floyd v. City of New York* that the NYPD's stop-and-frisk program violated the Fourth and Fourteenth Amendments, constituting racially discriminatory policing (84% of stops were Black or Latino; 88% of all stops yielded no arrest or summons). The linked t.co URL almost certainly directed to CBS New York's contemporaneous reporting on NYPD internal data covering the 28-day window ending September 8, 2013, which showed: shootings +13% (140 vs. 124), gunshot victims +9% (164 vs. 150), gun seizures −17% (239 vs. 289). --- ## Rhetorical Analysis The post's rhetorical architecture rests on a **post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy**: the Floyd ruling preceded a short-term crime increase, therefore the ruling caused the increase. This ignores seasonal variation, regression to the mean, the 7-week lag, and the long-term trend — which showed NYC murders *continuing to decline* as stop-and-frisk dropped from 685,000 stops annually (2011) to under 11,000 by 2017. The **appeal to statistics** provides false precision to what is fundamentally an ideological position. The **cherry-picked window** (28 days, one data point) is used to make a systemic causal claim. NYPD Commissioner Ray Kelly himself acknowledged the statistics but declined to attribute them to the ruling. Trump has no such hedging. --- ## Psychological State and Triggers This is a low-intensity, **maintenance/supply-seeking** post with embedded **vindication narrative**. The trigger is distal (the ruling, 7 weeks prior) rather than immediate. There is no acute narcissistic injury visible; the post functions as evidence-accumulation for a prior ideological position. The narcissistic state, to the degree it registers at all, is mildly **grandiose** — the implicit "I told you so" posture of the pragmatic realist whose warnings went unheeded and whose predictions are now borne out by data. --- ## Narrative Identity (Level 3 — McAdams) **Protagonist role:** The evidence-based pragmatist who sees reality clearly while ideologically captured judges and politicians make harmful decisions. **Contamination sequence:** functioning crime-control policy → activist judicial overreach → predictable civic harm. **Contrasting other:** abstract "pandering politicians" / liberal judiciary who prioritize ideology over empirical public safety. This narrative thread is documented here in 2013 and recurs verbatim in Trump's 2016 presidential debates, making this post a useful longitudinal baseline for tracking the rhetorical stability of this frame. --- ## Defense Mechanisms Minimal clinical significance in this post. **Rationalization** (neurotic): selectively mobilizing short-term statistics to justify a predetermined policy preference. Mild **denial** (pathological register, but weak expression): the constitutional and racial discrimination findings driving the ruling are structurally absent from the post's causal framing — the policy is implicitly cast as purely pragmatic crime-control with no acknowledgment of the rights violations documented over 4.4 million stops. --- ## Cognitive Assessment No markers of concern. Single-sentence claim, coherent logical structure (if causally flawed), appropriate use of statistical citation. Consistent with Trump's 2013 Twitter baseline. --- ## Danger Assessment **None.** This is conventional policy argumentation with cherry-picked data. No eliminationist language, dehumanization, or stochastic terrorism indicators are present. The advocacy for a practice found to constitute racial profiling carries civil liberties implications but is within the register of political speech rather than incitement. --- ## Longitudinal Significance This is an early and well-preserved data point in the stop-and-frisk narrative thread. Trump would invoke essentially the same argument — "crime rose when S&F was taken away" — during the 2016 presidential debates (September 26, 2016), in response to Charlotte protests, and repeatedly on the campaign trail. The consistency of the rhetorical frame across 13+ years suggests this is a genuine ideological position rather than opportunistic campaign rhetoric, and that the 2013 tweet predates any electoral motivation. ## Fact Verification | Claim | Verdict | Evidence | |-------|---------|----------| | "Since stop & frisk was struck down, gun shootings have spiked" | **Half True** | Short-term (28-day window ending Sept 8, 2013): shootings +13% (140 vs 124 in 2012 comparison period) — factually accurate. However, long-term data shows no causal link; NYC murders continued declining as S&F stops dropped from 685,000 (2011) to ~10,800 (2017). Causal attribution is unsupported and the window is cherry-picked. | | "Gunshot victims have spiked since stop & frisk was struck down" | **Half True** | Short-term: 164 gunshot victims vs 150 in same 2012 period (+9.3%) — factually accurate for the window. Same long-term caveat applies; Brennan Center analysis found no statistically significant relationship between S&F volume and crime rates. | | "Gun seizures have decreased since stop & frisk was struck down" | **Mostly True** | Short-term: 239 guns seized vs 289 in same 2012 period (−17.3%) — factually accurate for the stated window. Causal attribution to the ruling remains contested; Commissioner Kelly declined to attribute the decrease directly to the ruling. | Overall Veracity: 60% ## Authorship Analysis **Uncertain** (score: 40%) ### Indicators - 4:42 PM EDT falls within business hours — primary aide indicator - No typos, complete sentences, correct grammar throughout - Data-citation format and link-sharing pattern consistent with curated content distribution - Topic (stop-and-frisk, NYC crime policy) is an authentic long-running personal interest for Trump - Brief, punchy framing consistent with Trump's voice on this specific policy ## Psychological Profile ### State **Grandiose State** **Trigger:** Supply Seeking (Floyd v. City of New York ruling (August 12, 2013) — 7 weeks prior) Sentiment: -0.20 ### Clinical **Malignant Narcissism:** - Narcissistic: 25% - Antisocial: 15% - Paranoid: 10% - Sadism: 5% **Defense Mechanisms:** - rationalization (neurotic) - denial (pathological) **Cognitive Complexity:** - Complexity: 40% **Parasocial Techniques:** - vindication narrative — presenting data to followers as confirmation of shared prior judgment ## Danger Assessment **NONE** ### Gaslighting - Post-hoc causal framing presents temporal sequence (ruling → short-term statistics) as established causation without qualification - 28-day cherry-picked window is presented as representative trend while omitting long-term data that contradicts the claim - Structural omission of the constitutional and racial discrimination findings that drove the ruling, framing it purely as a crime-control error ## Fact Checks (3) _The model's verdicts from 2026-02-26._ > Since stop & frisk was struck down, gun shootings have spiked **HALF TRUE** Short-term (28-day window ending Sept 8, 2013): shootings +13% (140 vs 124 in 2012 comparison period) — factually accurate. However, long-term data shows no causal link; NYC murders continued declining as S&F stops dropped from 685,000 (2011) to ~10,800 (2017). Causal attribution is unsupported and the window is cherry-picked. Sources: https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/sources-shootings-up-in-nyc-since-stop-and-frisk-ruling/; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stop-and-frisk_in_New_York_City; https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/fact-sheet-stop-and-frisks-effect-crime-new-york-city > Gunshot victims have spiked since stop & frisk was struck down **HALF TRUE** Short-term: 164 gunshot victims vs 150 in same 2012 period (+9.3%) — factually accurate for the window. Same long-term caveat applies; Brennan Center analysis found no statistically significant relationship between S&F volume and crime rates. Sources: https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/sources-shootings-up-in-nyc-since-stop-and-frisk-ruling/; https://www.brennancenter.org/media/5670/download > Gun seizures have decreased since stop & frisk was struck down **MOSTLY TRUE** Short-term: 239 guns seized vs 289 in same 2012 period (−17.3%) — factually accurate for the stated window. Causal attribution to the ruling remains contested; Commissioner Kelly declined to attribute the decrease directly to the ruling. Sources: https://www.cbsnews.com/newyork/news/sources-shootings-up-in-nyc-since-stop-and-frisk-ruling/ Overall Veracity: 60% ## Tags - stop-and-frisk (95%) - law-and-order (80%) - NYC crime policy (75%) - selective data use (70%) - vindication narrative (60%) - Floyd v. City of New York (85%) ## That day _From trump.fm's machine-generated digest of the day, not his words._ **Routine Monday: Grandiose Maintenance Mode Amid Government Shutdown Eve** September 30, 2013 presents a psychologically unremarkable day in Trump's social media history — a flat, stable grandiose baseline with no rage, no escalation, and no meaningful state transitions. Seventeen posts spanning 7:53 AM to 7:22 PM EDT cover the full spectrum of his social media repertoire: fan-acknowledgment supply-seeking in the morning, substantive political commentary in the early afternoon (connecting the government shutdown countdown to his longstanding opposition to the ACA), an early iteration of his stop-and-frisk law-and-order narrative, and brand promotion interspersed throughout. The day is psychologically significant primarily as a baseline specimen — grandiose but contained, politically aware but not frenzied, and operating well within the bounds of normal public-figure social media behavior. The day's most analytically significant content — post x_384780213990612992 on stop-and-frisk — represents a subdued but early deployment of a rhetorical template that would recur structurally unchanged through at least the 2016 presidential campaign. The authorship pattern is revealing: @replies score measurably higher on authenticity metrics (0.55–0.85), while aphorisms, brand promotions, and generic business advice cluster at the bottom (0.10–0.30), strongly suggesting a staff-managed content calendar operating in parallel with authentic personal interactions. A near-duplicate Vancouver hotel post appearing twice (x_384760107474513920 at 3:22 PM EDT and x_384760107474513900 at 7:22 PM EDT) corroborates this multi-operator hypothesis, with the second instance bearing a tweet ID numerically lower than the first — a data inconsistency incompatible with genuine Twitter snowflake ID sequencing. No hypomanic indicators, no danger elevation, and no meaningful contradictions are present. Three major world events (Baghdad bombings, Niger kidnapping, Amanda Knox retrial) generated zero response, consistent with a durable selective engagement pattern: domestic politics and law enforcement absorb attention; international events do not. This day functions as a useful pre-campaign baseline — the architecture of later behavior is fully assembled but running at idle." Full digest for 2013-09-30: https://trump.fm/date/2013-09-30/analysis ## Citation - APA: Trump, D. J. (2013, September 30). Since stop & frisk was struck down, gun... [Social media post]. X (Twitter). trump.fm. https://trump.fm/post/x_384780213990612992 - MLA: Trump, Donald J. "Since stop & frisk was struck down, gun shootings &..." X (Twitter), 30 Sep. 2013. trump.fm, https://trump.fm/post/x_384780213990612992. Accessed 9 Oct. 2026. - Chicago: Donald J. Trump, "Since stop & frisk was struck down, gun shootings &...," X (Twitter), September 30, 2013, archived at trump.fm, https://trump.fm/post/x_384780213990612992. ## For agents - Site overview: https://trump.fm/llms.txt - API specification: https://trump.fm/openapi.json - MCP server: https://trump.fm/mcp (search and fetch tools, no auth) - This post as JSON: https://trump.fm/api/posts/x_384780213990612992 - Analysis as JSON: https://trump.fm/api/analysis/x_384780213990612992 - All citation formats: https://trump.fm/api/cite/x_384780213990612992 - Same day: https://trump.fm/date/2013-09-30 - The record alone, without the analysis: https://trump.fm/post/x_384780213990612992.md?analysis=false _Markdown view of a trump.fm page. Post, analysis, date, feed, contradictions, search and about pages answer in markdown at their URL with `.md` appended (`/index.md` for the home page), or when sent `Accept: text/markdown`._