# Post x_1306559853683445800

- Post ID: `x_1306559853683445800`
- Platform: X (Twitter)
- Posted: 2020-09-17T15:45:18.000Z (UTC)
- Deleted: no
- Repost: no
- Canonical URL: https://trump.fm/post/x_1306559853683445800
- Analysis page: https://trump.fm/post/x_1306559853683445800/analysis
- Audio narration: https://static.trump.fm/audio/x_1306559853683445800.mp3 (a synthesized voice reading the post text, not a recording)

## Post text

> The big Unsolicited Ballot States should give it up NOW, before it is too late, and ask people to go to the Polling Booths and, like always before, VOTE. Otherwise, MAYHEM!!! Solicited Ballots (absentee) are OK. @foxandfriends

## Engagement

- Likes: 0
- Reposts: 18,869
- Replies: 0
- Views: unknown
- Metrics collected: 2026-02-01T01:33:24.790Z (UTC)

# Analysis

_Machine-generated by trump.fm on 2026-03-19T14:51:30.727Z (UTC): a model's reading of this post, not his words. Its psychological terms describe the language, not a clinical assessment of him._

## Summary

Posted 47 days before the 2020 election, this tweet represents a structurally significant moment in Trump's electoral delegitimization campaign. The post deploys a three-part coercive pattern: an imperative demand directed at sovereign state entities ("give it up NOW"), a false binary distinction between solicited and unsolicited ballots (operationally identical in most states), and an implied catastrophic threat ("MAYHEM!!!"). The Fox & Friends tag is a reliable authorship indicator — real-time reactive posting following morning cable consumption — and the triple exclamation points, ALL CAPS climax word, and parenthetical asides confirm authentic authorship.

The primary psychological driver is preemptive narcissistic defense: with polls unfavorable, the subject is constructing prospective narrative infrastructure that will allow a potential defeat to be reframed as theft rather than repudiation. This protects the grandiose self-concept from the narcissistic injury of electoral rejection. Paranoid features are prominent — unnamed actors are assumed to be deliberately engineering chaos — and the response is aggressive counterattack rather than engagement with evidence.

The "MAYHEM!!!" deployment meets the structural criteria for stochastic terrorism: target identified, grievance articulated, violent/chaotic consequence implied, without explicit operational instruction. Read in longitudinal context, this post is part of a documented 14-month rhetoric campaign whose culmination was January 6, 2021. Danger level: elevated, trending high given trajectory.

## Comprehensive Analysis: September 17, 2020 — "MAYHEM!!!" Post

### Authorship Attribution

**UTC 15:45 → EDT 11:45 AM.** Trump was likely in the Washington D.C. area on this date (the Phoenix roundtable and Henderson rally appear to have occurred earlier in the week). 11:45 AM EDT falls within business hours, a mild indicator of possible aide involvement, but the stylistic evidence is overwhelmingly authentic Trump:

- Idiosyncratic capitalization of noun phrases as proper nouns ("Unsolicited Ballot States," "Polling Booths")
- ALL CAPS on the climactic threat word ("MAYHEM")
- Triple exclamation points
- Stream-of-consciousness mid-thought qualification ("(absentee) are OK")
- Direct @foxandfriends tag — strongly suggests he just watched the morning program and was reacting in real time
- The command register ("give it up NOW, before it is too late") is impulsive and unpolished
- Parenthetical asides and fragmented sentence logic are characteristic

**Assessment: Highly authentic.** The morning Fox & Friends tag is a well-documented Trump production pipeline — he watches, reacts, posts. Aide-written posts typically lack this impulsive emotional charge and triple punctuation.

---

### Level 1: Dispositional Traits (Big Five)

**Extraversion (High):** Dominant, assertive command register. Directs multiple parties simultaneously. No hedging.

**Agreeableness (Very Low):** Threatening language, zero accommodation or empathy toward state administrators or voters relying on mail systems. Demand for immediate capitulation.

**Conscientiousness (Low):** Impulsive, reactive to cable news. No acknowledgment of procedural complexity or logistical reality of changing voting systems weeks before an election.

**Neuroticism (High):** Angry hostility, emotional escalation marked by "NOW" and "MAYHEM!!!". The threat is disproportionate to the stated provocation. Multiple prior posts in the same session demonstrate building agitation.

**Openness (Very Low):** Rigid schema — only his preferred voting mechanism is legitimate. No engagement with counterarguments.

---

### Level 2: Characteristic Adaptations

**Agency motives (dominant):** This post is fundamentally about control — specifically, controlling the mechanics of an election the subject fears he may lose. The demand is for others to restructure voting procedures to conform to his preferences, with threats attached.

**Power schema:** The subject positions himself as having legitimate authority to instruct sovereign states on election administration — a constitutional overreach normalized through the confident imperative register.

**Paranoid schema:** The construction "or wherever" (from the companion post) reveals a schema in which ballots are inherently suspect instruments of fraud, not tools of democratic participation. This schema is not responsive to evidence; it is structurally fixed.

---

### Level 3: Narrative Identity

**Protagonist role:** *Warrior-Protector* — the lone figure sounding the alarm before catastrophe, demanding institutional actors act while there is still time.

**Contamination sequence:** The implicit narrative is that a functional electoral system is being *contaminated* by fraudulent mail-in procedures engineered by unnamed bad actors ("what some want" — companion post).

**Redemption arc (prospective):** If states comply, disaster averted; if not, MAYHEM — and crucially, he will have warned them. This is prophylactic narrative construction: pre-framing a contested outcome as vindication of his warnings.

**Contrasting other:** "Unsolicited Ballot States" as a monolithic adversarial entity, abstracted away from individual election administrators, governors, or voters.

**Identity claims:** "I know what electoral legitimacy looks like and you don't. I am the guardian of real elections."

---

### Level 4: Clinical Indicators

**Narcissistic features:** The entitlement to dictate state election procedures ("give it up NOW") is consistent with narcissistic entitlement schema. No acknowledgment that states have constitutional authority over their own election administration.

**Paranoid features:** The companion post's "or wherever" and "may NEVER BE ACCURATELY DETERMINED" language reveals preoccupation with systemic fraud, bearing grudges against institutions, and rapid defensive counterattack. These posts collectively represent a sustained paranoid ideation about electoral legitimacy.

**Antisocial features:** Explicit threat of social disorder ("MAYHEM!!!") as a predicted consequence of states not complying — this functions as coercive pressure on democratic institutions, disregarding the rule of law and constitutional order.

**Narcissistic trigger:** *Preemptive attack.* With the election 47 days away and polls unfavorable, this is groundwork construction — delegitimizing the vote-counting process before results arrive. This is a supply-protective maneuver: by pre-poisoning the epistemic well, a defeat can be reframed as theft rather than repudiation.

---

### Defense Mechanisms

**Distortion (Pathological):** The subject reshapes the nature of mail-in voting to manufacture a false distinction between "solicited" and "unsolicited" ballots. In most states, these are functionally identical processes. The distortion serves to make universal vote-by-mail seem aberrant while preserving "absentee" (i.e., Republican-coded) voting as legitimate.

**Splitting (Immature):** Absentee = OK; mail-in = MAYHEM. Binary reality construction with no intermediate positions. The splitting allows him to appear not anti-voting while attacking a major voting mechanism.

**Projection (Immature):** His own campaign's documented voter suppression efforts are projected outward as the states' electoral manipulation.

**Rationalization (Neurotic):** The solicited/unsolicited framing provides pseudo-logical justification for what is functionally an attack on voting access.

---

### Rhetorical & Propaganda Analysis

**False dichotomy:** The solicited/unsolicited distinction is politically constructed rather than operationally meaningful. Absentee and universal mail ballots involve the same security procedures in most jurisdictions.

**Appeal to catastrophe:** "MAYHEM!!!" — maximal consequence language without specification, designed to produce fear while allowing deniability regarding what form the mayhem would take.

**Command rhetoric:** "give it up NOW, before it is too late" — urgency manufactured to foreclose deliberation and demand immediate compliance.

**RAND Firehose pattern:** This post is one of multiple same-day posts on the same theme (previous post also attacks "unsolicited ballots"). Volume and repetition normalize the false framing through sheer density.

**Dehumanizing language:** Absent in this post; the target is institutional ("Ballot States") rather than personal.

**Violent imagery:** "MAYHEM!!!" is semantically violent — it describes social chaos and disorder associated with violence, mob action, and breakdown of civil order.

---

### Stochastic Terrorism Assessment

**Target identified:** ✓ "Big Unsolicited Ballot States"
**Grievance articulated:** ✓ Electoral illegitimacy, fraud, "Ballot Madness"
**Violent/chaotic consequence implied:** ✓ "MAYHEM!!!"
**Explicit call to action:** Not directed at followers — directed at state officials

**Assessment:** This post meets the structural definition of stochastic terrorism — it identifies targets, articulates grievances, and implies violent/chaotic consequences, without explicitly instructing followers to act. The mechanism is ambient: followers receive the message that MAYHEM is the natural/predicted outcome of these states' behavior. This normalizes violent disruption as an anticipated response to electoral processes the subject opposes.

**Longitudinal significance:** In retrospect, this September 2020 post is part of an eight-month pre-January 6 narrative construction campaign. The specific framing — that mail-in voting will produce illegitimate results, that "some people" want this, that the election result may "never be accurately determined" — constitutes the ideological infrastructure that January 6 drew upon. This is not retrospective over-reading; the pattern was documentable and flaggable in real time.

---

### Gaslighting & Reality Distortion

**Epistemic attack:** "May NEVER BE ACCURATELY DETERMINED" (companion post) is a direct assault on the legitimacy of the vote-counting process before it has occurred.

**DARVO present:** The subject positions himself as the victim of a coordinated election theft before any votes have been cast, reversing the actual power dynamic (incumbent president with institutional advantages attacking the democratic process).

**Reality distortion:** Mail-in fraud rates are documented to be exceedingly low (0.00006% in one comprehensive study). The subject presents fraud as a near-certainty.

**Epistemic closure signaling:** By tagging @foxandfriends, the post routes followers to a closed information ecosystem that will validate the false framing.

---

### Cognitive Status

**Complexity score relative to baseline:** Consistent with Trump's 2020 Twitter baseline. Short declarative sentences, emotional capitalization, parenthetical asides. No evidence of word-finding difficulty or phonemic paraphasia in this post.

**Perseveration note:** Three posts in this session on the same subject (unsolicited ballots) demonstrates perseveration at the thematic level — the subject is unable to move off the topic. This is consistent with baseline anxious preoccupation rather than organic perseveration.

**Baseline deviation:** None marked. This is within established 2020 parameters.

---

### Danger Assessment

**Level: ELEVATED → HIGH**

The "MAYHEM!!!" formulation is the primary danger indicator. While it does not specify the agent or form of mayhem, it:
1. Normalizes violent disorder as a predicted/natural consequence of democratic processes the subject opposes
2. Primes the audience to accept civil violence as an expected and perhaps justified outcome
3. Is part of a sustained narrative campaign — not an isolated hyperbole

This post, read in isolation, is elevated risk. Read as part of the 14-month pre-January 6 pattern visible in retrospect, it is part of a high-risk trajectory.

---

### Fact Verification

| Claim | Verdict | Evidence |
|-------|---------|----------|
| "Unsolicited (mail-in) ballots are fundamentally different from solicited (absentee) ballots in terms of legitimacy and security" | **Mostly False** | In most states, universal vote-by-mail uses identical security procedures to traditional absentee voting: signature verification, ballot tracking, chain of custody requirements. The distinction is a political framing without meaningful operational security basis. |
| "Mass mail-in voting will result in 'MAYHEM'" | **False** | States with long-standing universal vote-by-mail systems (Oregon since 2000, Washington, Colorado) have not experienced the predicted chaos. The 2020 election processed over 65 million mail ballots without systemic fraud or mayhem. |
| "The 2020 election result 'may NEVER BE ACCURATELY DETERMINED' (companion post)" | **False** | The 2020 election was certified by all 50 states and the District of Columbia, confirmed by the Electoral College, upheld by 60+ court decisions across multiple jurisdictions, and validated by Trump's own Attorney General (Barr: 'no widespread fraud') and CISA Director (Krebs: 'most secure election in American history'). |

Overall Veracity: 7%

## Authorship Analysis

**Self-Written** (score: 88%)

### Indicators

- @foxandfriends direct tag suggesting real-time reaction to morning cable news
- ALL CAPS 'MAYHEM' consistent with authentic emotional escalation pattern
- Triple exclamation points (!!!) — characteristic authentic marker
- Idiosyncratic capitalization of noun phrases as proper nouns ('Unsolicited Ballot States', 'Polling Booths')
- Parenthetical mid-thought qualifier '(absentee) are OK' — unpolished stream-of-consciousness insertion

## Psychological Profile

### State

**Mixed State**

**Trigger:** Preemptive Attack — Defeat (2020 election polling and mail-in voting expansion)

**Rage:** Intensity 72% targeting States administering universal mail-in voting
- Proportionality: 12%

Sentiment: -0.72

**Mildly Hypomanic**
- Rapid-fire posting cadence (multiple posts in single session on escalating theme)
- Escalating urgency register across session ('NOW, before it is too late')
- Triple exclamation points and ALL CAPS as intensity markers
- Imperative commands directed at sovereign state entities — inflated sense of authority and agency

### Clinical

**Malignant Narcissism:**
- Narcissistic: 78%
- Antisocial: 68%
- Paranoid: 74%
- Sadism: 28%

**Defense Mechanisms:**
- distortion (pathological)
- splitting (immature)
- projection (immature)
- rationalization (neurotic)

**Cognitive Complexity:**
- Complexity: 38%

Cognitive Markers:
- perseveration

**Parasocial Techniques:**
- Fox & Friends tag routes followers to validating closed information ecosystem
- Imperial 'we' implied through command voice — positions audience as co-stakeholders in electoral outcome
- Manufactured urgency ('before it is too late') activates threat response and forecloses deliberation

## Danger Assessment

**ELEVATED**

**Stochastic Terrorism Pattern Detected**

### Indicators

- 'MAYHEM!!!' — semantically violent term predicting civil disorder as natural consequence of states proceeding with mail-in voting
- Stochastic terrorism structure: target (Unsolicited Ballot States) + grievance (electoral illegitimacy) + implied violent consequence (MAYHEM) without explicit call to action
- Part of documented 14-month narrative infrastructure leading to January 6, 2021
- Delegitimization of electoral process before votes cast — removes epistemic basis for accepting unfavorable results
- Command directed at sovereign state entities implies those entities are acting illegitimately, priming audience hostility toward state officials

### Gaslighting

- Attacks legitimacy of mail-in voting process before any fraud has occurred or been demonstrated
- DARVO structure: positions incumbent president as victim of electoral theft by state administrators following their own laws
- Companion post: 'may NEVER BE ACCURATELY DETERMINED' — pre-emptive delegitimization of any unfavorable result
- @foxandfriends routing: directs followers to closed epistemic ecosystem that will validate the distorted framing
- False distinction (solicited vs. unsolicited ballots) presented as self-evident objective fact requiring no evidence

**Violent Imagery Present**

## Fact Checks (3)

_The model's verdicts from 2026-03-19._

> Unsolicited (mail-in) ballots are fundamentally different from solicited (absentee) ballots in terms of legitimacy and security

**MOSTLY FALSE**

In most states, universal vote-by-mail uses identical security procedures to traditional absentee voting: signature verification, ballot tracking, chain of custody requirements. The distinction is a political framing without meaningful operational security basis.

Sources: National Conference of State Legislatures voting procedures documentation; Bipartisan Policy Center election security reports

> Mass mail-in voting will result in 'MAYHEM'

**FALSE**

States with long-standing universal vote-by-mail systems (Oregon since 2000, Washington, Colorado) have not experienced the predicted chaos. The 2020 election processed over 65 million mail ballots without systemic fraud or mayhem.

Sources: 2020 Election Administration and Voting Survey (EAVS); MIT Election Data and Science Lab

> The 2020 election result 'may NEVER BE ACCURATELY DETERMINED' (companion post)

**FALSE**

The 2020 election was certified by all 50 states and the District of Columbia, confirmed by the Electoral College, upheld by 60+ court decisions across multiple jurisdictions, and validated by Trump's own Attorney General (Barr: 'no widespread fraud') and CISA Director (Krebs: 'most secure election in American history').

Sources: CISA election security statement Nov 2020; Attorney General Barr AP interview Dec 2020

Overall Veracity: 7%

## Tags

- mail-in-voting-attack (95%)
- MAYHEM-threat (88%)
- stochastic-terrorism (82%)
- election-fraud-narrative (95%)
- fox-and-friends-reaction (85%)
- preemptive-defeat-framing (90%)
- epistemic-pre-poisoning (88%)
- jan6-precursor (78%)

## That day

_From trump.fm's machine-generated digest of the day, not his words._

**47 Days Out: Election Delegitimization Campaign Reaches Saturation Intensity**

Trump spent most of September 17 hammering a single message: mail-in ballots are fraudulent, the election is rigged, and chaos is coming. Across nearly a dozen posts, he seized on minor administrative errors in Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania to build a case that the entire electoral system was compromised. The most aggressive moment came mid-morning when he warned states to abandon mail-in voting "before it is too late" or face "MAYHEM" -- while his own campaign simultaneously promoted absentee ballot sign-ups. Routine presidential business (a congratulatory note to Japan's new prime minister, healthcare claims, an Alaska mining promise) filled the gaps, but the day's mood was dominated by combative election anxiety.

Full digest for 2020-09-17: https://trump.fm/date/2020-09-17/analysis

## Citation

- APA: Trump, D. J. (2020, September 17). The big Unsolicited Ballot States should give it... [Social media post]. X (Twitter). trump.fm. https://trump.fm/post/x_1306559853683445800
- MLA: Trump, Donald J. "The big Unsolicited Ballot States should give it up NOW,..." X (Twitter), 17 Sep. 2020. trump.fm, https://trump.fm/post/x_1306559853683445800. Accessed 18 Oct. 2026.
- Chicago: Donald J. Trump, "The big Unsolicited Ballot States should give it up NOW,...," X (Twitter), September 17, 2020, archived at trump.fm, https://trump.fm/post/x_1306559853683445800.

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