# Post ts_117525804009701874

- Post ID: `ts_117525804009701874`
- Platform: Truth Social
- Posted: 2026-10-29T19:17:32.784Z (UTC)
- Deleted: no
- Repost: no
- Canonical URL: https://trump.fm/post/ts_117525804009701874
- Analysis page: https://trump.fm/post/ts_117525804009701874/analysis
- Audio narration: https://static.trump.fm/audio/ts_117525804009701874.mp3 (a synthesized voice reading the post text, not a recording)

## Post text

> Congressman Mike Kelly, who has been with us from the very beginning, is a Tremendous Champion of Pennsylvania’s 16th Congressional District!
>
> As a Senior Member of the POWERFUL House Ways & Means Committee, Mike understands the America First Policies required to Create GREAT Jobs, Cut Taxes and Regulations, Advance American Energy DOMINANCE, Promote MADE IN THE U.S.A., and Champion our Nation’s Golden Age. He is fighting tirelessly to Keep our Border SECURE, Stop Migrant Crime, Strengthen our Military/Veterans, Defend our always under siege Second Amendment, and Advocate for the Working Men and Women of Pennsylvania.
>
> Mike’s opponent, Justin Wagner, is a Radical Left Democrat who is opposed to NO TAX ON TIPS, NO TAX ON OVERTIME, and NO TAX ON SOCIAL SECURITY and, if he and the Dumocrats ever got in, all of these things will be terminated. He wants massive Tax Increases, Open Borders, Men playing in Women’s Sports, and Transgender Mutilization of your Children. Justin Wagner is Reckless, Radical, and Dangerous!
>
> Mike Kelly has my Complete and Total Endorsement for Re-Election. GET OUT AND VOTE FOR MIKE — HE WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN! President DONALD J. TRUMP
> https://swampthevoteusa.com/pennsylvania/

## Engagement

- Likes: 5,582
- Reposts: 1,409
- Replies: 363
- Views: unknown
- Metrics collected: 2026-10-30T12:01:05.129Z (UTC)

# Analysis

_Machine-generated by trump.fm on 2026-10-29T19:24:01.619Z (UTC): a model's reading of this post, not his words. Its psychological terms describe the language, not a clinical assessment of him._

## The sixth Pennsylvania endorsement off one template

On 29 October 2026, five days before the 3 November midterm, the account put out at least six endorsements of Pennsylvania House Republicans: districts 8 (Bresnahan), 11 (Smucker), 13 (Joyce), 14 (Reschenthaler), 15 (Thompson), and this one for the 16th (Mike Kelly). Set beside the earlier five, the post shows the same skeleton. It opens with a superlative ("a Tremendous Champion of Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District!"), gives a committee credential ("Senior Member of the POWERFUL House Ways & Means Committee"), and lists issues in title case. The opponent paragraph begins "is a Radical Left Democrat who is opposed to NO TAX ON TIPS," and the post closes with "Complete and Total Endorsement." The phrase "our always under siege Second Amendment" appears word for word in four of the five earlier posts. Across the six, only the names, district numbers, committee titles and the order of the issue list change.

## Who typed it

19:17 UTC falls under Eastern Daylight Time, which runs until 1 November, so the post went out at 3:17 p.m. local, in the middle of an afternoon batch. Several features point to staff: the third-person sign-off "President DONALD J. TRUMP", the appended early-vote URL (swampthevoteusa.com/pennsylvania/), and capitalization applied by rule (title case on policy nouns, all caps on slogans like "NO TAX ON OVERTIME" and "MADE IN THE U.S.A."). That house style copies his voice, but it is too even to have been typed by hand. The two non-standard words, "Dumocrats" and "Mutilization," also recur across the endorsement series. That makes them fixed copy, so they tell us nothing about his language production in this post.

## The one clause that is about Trump

Five of the six posts praise the candidate's district work. This one adds "who has been with us from the very beginning", and the only comparable line in the batch is Reschenthaler "working closely with me." The clause makes the date someone signed on the first credential, ahead of the committee seat. Kelly's record supports the loyalty reading. He was an early 2016 Trump backer and, in November 2020, the lead plaintiff in Kelly v. Commonwealth, which asked to throw out Pennsylvania's mail-in ballots. In this schema, allies are ranked by how long they have been loyal. Even in staff copy, the clause shows what the operation thinks he wants said about a candidate.

## Splitting by slot

The template has an all-good slot and an all-bad slot. Kelly "WILL NEVER LET YOU DOWN"; Wagner is "Reckless, Radical, and Dangerous" and wants "massive Tax Increases, Open Borders, Men playing in Women's Sports, and Transgender Mutilization of your Children." This is idealization and devaluation, assigned by party. The list of positions pinned on Wagner is the one pinned on Cognetti and Farnham in the same batch, so it comes from his party label rather than from anything he has said. The loss frame, "if he and the Dumocrats ever got in, all of these things will be terminated," is an appeal to fear over the 2025 tax deductions. Those deductions expire after tax year 2028 under the statute that created them, so the warning blames the opponent for an end date the law already sets.

The anti-trans line casts children as the targets of an outgroup practice and is the most charged item in the post. It names a policy category and a party, though, and the only mobilization is "GET OUT AND VOTE FOR MIKE." No individual is put at risk beyond being the named electoral opponent. This is the electoral template's routine register, and with no grievance, provocation or personal injury in view, the post is campaign maintenance in a batch. It shows no shift in his narcissistic state.

Archetypally, the post casts Trump as the King handing out favor to loyal vassals. Order goes to "the Working Men and Women of Pennsylvania," and the threat of disorder (open borders, "Migrant Crime," harm to children) is placed on the opposing party. The post defends the existing hierarchy rather than attacking one, which fits an incumbent president protecting a House majority.

## Fact Verification

| Claim | Verdict | Evidence |
|-------|---------|----------|
| "Mike Kelly is a Senior Member of the House Ways & Means Committee representing Pennsylvania's 16th District" | **True** | Kelly has represented the 16th District (numbered the 3rd before the 2018 redistricting) since 2011 and has served on Ways and Means since 2017. |
| "Kelly 'has been with us from the very beginning'" | **Mostly True** | Kelly backed Trump in 2016 and was the lead plaintiff in Kelly v. Commonwealth (2020), which sought to invalidate Pennsylvania mail-in ballots. He was not among the very first House endorsers in early 2016, so 'the very beginning' is hyperbole. |
| "Wagner opposes no tax on tips, no tax on overtime and no tax on Social Security" | **Mostly False** | I found no statement in which Justin Wagner, the Democratic nominee in PA-16, opposes tax relief on tips or overtime. I checked his campaign homepage and platform page, the Branch and Prediction Edge voter profiles, the WESA voter guide (Oct. 5, 2026), the Erie Times-News race story syndicated on Yahoo (Oct. 26, 2026), the CBS Pittsburgh/KDKA preview (Oct. 20, 2026), the WFMJ profile (Oct. 23, 2026), the Butler Eagle primary story, the Erie News Now forum write-up, and a Portside Erie interview (Oct. 5, 2026). None of them shows Wagner addressing tips or overtime. The platform's tax section ('Make Taxation Fair Again') criticizes the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as a 'bait and switch' that favored corporations and the wealthy. It proposes closing the 2017 loopholes and taxing wealth more like work income, and pledges: 'I will vote to pass tax policy that does not allow working-class families to pay a higher tax rate than billionaires.' His Social Security section opposes benefit cuts, a higher retirement age and privatization. It supports lifting the payroll tax cap and the Social Security Expansion Act. Both sections push away from higher taxes on wage earners, not toward them.

The claim does have a basis. Wagner criticizes the 2025 law that contains the tips and overtime deductions (the 'One Big Beautiful Bill', which Kelly calls the Working Families Tax Cuts). In CBS Pittsburgh's preview he objects to its 'cuts to Medicaid, cuts to SNAP benefits.' The Erie Times-News and CBS name the tips and overtime provisions only as Kelly's selling points. Neither says Wagner wants them repealed. Opposing the bill overall is not the same as opposing these provisions, which drew Democratic support on their own: the Senate passed the standalone No Tax on Tips Act by unanimous consent in May 2025.

The Social Security part rests on a false premise. The 2025 law did not end income tax on Social Security benefits. The exemption was dropped under Senate rules, and the law instead gives people 65 and older a temporary extra deduction of $6,000 through 2028. Fact-checkers and tax experts call 'no tax on Social Security' misleading. The tips and overtime deductions also expire after 2028 under the law itself. The first-pass note is right that the sentence appears word for word against other Democratic challengers the same day. It reads as a party-wide template line, not something taken from Wagner's record. |
| "If Democrats win, 'all of these things will be terminated'" | **Mostly False** | The 2025 reconciliation law made the tip, overtime and senior deductions temporary, for tax years 2025 through 2028. They end under existing law regardless of which party wins in 2026, and a House majority alone cannot repeal them over a presidential veto. |
| "There is 'NO TAX ON SOCIAL SECURITY'" | **Mostly False** | The 2025 law added a temporary $6,000 deduction for taxpayers 65 and older. It did not exempt Social Security benefits from income tax, and higher-income recipients still pay tax on their benefits. |
| "Wagner wants massive tax increases, open borders, men in women's sports and transgender mutilation of children" | **Mostly False** | The claim bundles four charges, and the record shows the following for each.

Tax increases: partly grounded, overstated. Wagner does want higher taxes on some people. His platform proposes closing the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act loopholes, taxing wealth more like work income, and lifting the Social Security payroll tax cap so high earners pay on all their income. Prediction Edge summarizes this as raising taxes on wealth and corporations rather than cutting them. Every increase he names targets high earners and corporations. His stated rule is that working-class families should not pay a higher rate than billionaires, and he calls tariffs 'across-the-board import taxes' paid by working families. That is not a call for 'massive tax increases' on voters in general.

Open borders: contradicted by his own words. To WESA he said: 'I served in uniform, and I believe a nation has to secure its borders.' He backs 'smart border security with modern technology' and legal pathways. To the Erie Times-News (Oct. 26, 2026) he said: 'I'm not for open borders. I'm for sensible immigration reform that doesn't treat people like this.' His platform calls for a system that 'secures the border and stops cartels,' together with due process, oversight of enforcement agencies, DACA protection and a path to citizenship. He sharply criticizes ICE tactics, but a path to citizenship and oversight of enforcement are not open borders.

Transgender athletes and gender-affirming care for minors: nothing found. His platform's sections cover transparency, taxes, Social Security, wages, housing, unions, healthcare, education, privacy, data centers, immigration, foreign policy, gun rights, bodily autonomy and the environment. None mentions transgender people, LGBTQ issues, gender or sports. The 'bodily autonomy' section is about abortion and contraception. No interview or news story I found (WESA, Erie Times-News, CBS Pittsburgh, WFMJ, Butler Eagle, Erie News Now, Portside Erie) reports him saying anything on these subjects. 'Mutilation' is a loaded term for gender-affirming care, not a position anyone in the race has stated.

The RNC-paid 'Swamp the Vote' page linked in the post cites no source for any claim about Wagner. The same list of charges appeared against other Democratic challengers in the same day's posts. One charge has a partial basis (higher taxes on the wealthy), one is contradicted by his own statements (open borders), and two have no support anywhere in his record. |

Overall Veracity: 43%

## Authorship Analysis

**Aide-Written** (score: 10%)

### Indicators

- Sent at 3:17 p.m. EDT, in business hours, as one of at least six near-identical Pennsylvania endorsements the same day
- Third-person sign-off 'President DONALD J. TRUMP'
- Campaign early-vote URL appended
- Shared skeleton and verbatim phrases across the batch ('always under siege Second Amendment', 'Complete and Total Endorsement')
- Capitalization applied by rule rather than by impulse

## Psychological Profile

### Traits

**Big Five:**
- Extraversion: 70%
- Agreeableness: 30%
- Conscientiousness: 60%
- Neuroticism: 25%
- Openness: 20%

Strongest facet: Low agreeableness (hostility toward the opponent) set inside an assertive endorsement

**Motives:**
- Agency: 75%
- Communion: 35%

Primary drive: power

### Narrative

- **Role:** Patron-king conferring endorsement on loyal allies
- **Arc:** neutral
- **Contrasting:** Justin Wagner and 'the Dumocrats'

**Identity Claims:**
- Leader of an 'us' that loyal allies joined 'from the very beginning'
- Architect of 'our Nation's Golden Age'

### State

**Grandiose State**

**Trigger:** Maintenance (Midterm endorsement batch five days before the 3 November 2026 election)

Sentiment: +0.10

### Clinical

**Malignant Narcissism:**
- Narcissistic: 30%
- Antisocial: 10%
- Paranoid: 15%
- Sadism: 5%

**Defense Mechanisms:**
- splitting (immature)
- devaluation (immature)
- idealization (immature)

**Cognitive Complexity:**
- Complexity: 45%

**Parasocial Techniques:**
- Direct address to voters ('your Children', 'GET OUT AND VOTE')
- Inclusive 'with us' framing that puts the reader in the in-group

## Fact Checks (6)

_The model's verdicts from 2026-10-29._

> Mike Kelly is a Senior Member of the House Ways & Means Committee representing Pennsylvania's 16th District

**TRUE**

Kelly has represented the 16th District (numbered the 3rd before the 2018 redistricting) since 2011 and has served on Ways and Means since 2017.

Sources: https://kelly.house.gov

> Kelly 'has been with us from the very beginning'

**MOSTLY TRUE**

Kelly backed Trump in 2016 and was the lead plaintiff in Kelly v. Commonwealth (2020), which sought to invalidate Pennsylvania mail-in ballots. He was not among the very first House endorsers in early 2016, so 'the very beginning' is hyperbole.

> Wagner opposes no tax on tips, no tax on overtime and no tax on Social Security

**MOSTLY FALSE**

I found no statement in which Justin Wagner, the Democratic nominee in PA-16, opposes tax relief on tips or overtime. I checked his campaign homepage and platform page, the Branch and Prediction Edge voter profiles, the WESA voter guide (Oct. 5, 2026), the Erie Times-News race story syndicated on Yahoo (Oct. 26, 2026), the CBS Pittsburgh/KDKA preview (Oct. 20, 2026), the WFMJ profile (Oct. 23, 2026), the Butler Eagle primary story, the Erie News Now forum write-up, and a Portside Erie interview (Oct. 5, 2026). None of them shows Wagner addressing tips or overtime. The platform's tax section ('Make Taxation Fair Again') criticizes the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as a 'bait and switch' that favored corporations and the wealthy. It proposes closing the 2017 loopholes and taxing wealth more like work income, and pledges: 'I will vote to pass tax policy that does not allow working-class families to pay a higher tax rate than billionaires.' His Social Security section opposes benefit cuts, a higher retirement age and privatization. It supports lifting the payroll tax cap and the Social Security Expansion Act. Both sections push away from higher taxes on wage earners, not toward them.

The claim does have a basis. Wagner criticizes the 2025 law that contains the tips and overtime deductions (the 'One Big Beautiful Bill', which Kelly calls the Working Families Tax Cuts). In CBS Pittsburgh's preview he objects to its 'cuts to Medicaid, cuts to SNAP benefits.' The Erie Times-News and CBS name the tips and overtime provisions only as Kelly's selling points. Neither says Wagner wants them repealed. Opposing the bill overall is not the same as opposing these provisions, which drew Democratic support on their own: the Senate passed the standalone No Tax on Tips Act by unanimous consent in May 2025.

The Social Security part rests on a false premise. The 2025 law did not end income tax on Social Security benefits. The exemption was dropped under Senate rules, and the law instead gives people 65 and older a temporary extra deduction of $6,000 through 2028. Fact-checkers and tax experts call 'no tax on Social Security' misleading. The tips and overtime deductions also expire after 2028 under the law itself. The first-pass note is right that the sentence appears word for word against other Democratic challengers the same day. It reads as a party-wide template line, not something taken from Wagner's record.

Sources: https://www.justinwagnerforcongress.com/; https://www.justinwagnerforcongress.com/platform; https://branch.vote/races/2026-pennsylvania-general-election--pa-state-us-representative-pa-congressional-16/candidates/justin-wagner; https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/profile/justin-wagner/; https://www.wesanews.org/wesa-voter-guide/2026-10-05/pa-us-house-16th-district-kelly-wagner; https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/16th-district-wagner-calls-change-135436927.html; https://www.cbsnews.com/pittsburgh/news/rep-mike-kelly-justin-wagner-race-preview/; https://www.wfmj.com/news/political/democrat-wagner-challenges-incumbent-mike-kelly-in-pa-16th-congressional-district-race/article_488f72c9-4645-4499-b39a-c25b71e6d9ac.html; https://www.butlereagle.com/20260521/matchup-set-for-16th-district-race-between-kelly-and-wagner/; https://www.erienewsnow.com/news/kelly-and-wagner-in-the-16th-congressional-district-forum/article_83c03de7-a122-48ce-bda3-14ec3dfbcb4e.html; https://portsideerie.substack.com/p/exclusive-interview-with-congressional; https://penncapital-star.com/voter-guides/contests/2026-general-u-s-house-district-16/; https://www.yahoo.com/news/senate-unexpectedly-passes-no-tax-210830373.html; https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/business/money-report/big-beautiful-bill-may-help-some-seniors-on-social-security-but-it-doesnt-eliminate-taxes-on-benefits/6327715/; https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/miami/news/new-tax-deduction-in-big-beautiful-bill-misunderstood-by-many-experts-say; https://www.forbes.com/sites/kellyphillipserb/2025/05/15/no-taxes-on-tips-overtime-and-social-security-not-exactly/; https://swampthevoteusa.com/pennsylvania/

> If Democrats win, 'all of these things will be terminated'

**MOSTLY FALSE**

The 2025 reconciliation law made the tip, overtime and senior deductions temporary, for tax years 2025 through 2028. They end under existing law regardless of which party wins in 2026, and a House majority alone cannot repeal them over a presidential veto.

Sources: https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/one-big-beautiful-bill-provisions

> There is 'NO TAX ON SOCIAL SECURITY'

**MOSTLY FALSE**

The 2025 law added a temporary $6,000 deduction for taxpayers 65 and older. It did not exempt Social Security benefits from income tax, and higher-income recipients still pay tax on their benefits.

Sources: https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/releases/2025/

> Wagner wants massive tax increases, open borders, men in women's sports and transgender mutilation of children

**MOSTLY FALSE**

The claim bundles four charges, and the record shows the following for each.

Tax increases: partly grounded, overstated. Wagner does want higher taxes on some people. His platform proposes closing the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act loopholes, taxing wealth more like work income, and lifting the Social Security payroll tax cap so high earners pay on all their income. Prediction Edge summarizes this as raising taxes on wealth and corporations rather than cutting them. Every increase he names targets high earners and corporations. His stated rule is that working-class families should not pay a higher rate than billionaires, and he calls tariffs 'across-the-board import taxes' paid by working families. That is not a call for 'massive tax increases' on voters in general.

Open borders: contradicted by his own words. To WESA he said: 'I served in uniform, and I believe a nation has to secure its borders.' He backs 'smart border security with modern technology' and legal pathways. To the Erie Times-News (Oct. 26, 2026) he said: 'I'm not for open borders. I'm for sensible immigration reform that doesn't treat people like this.' His platform calls for a system that 'secures the border and stops cartels,' together with due process, oversight of enforcement agencies, DACA protection and a path to citizenship. He sharply criticizes ICE tactics, but a path to citizenship and oversight of enforcement are not open borders.

Transgender athletes and gender-affirming care for minors: nothing found. His platform's sections cover transparency, taxes, Social Security, wages, housing, unions, healthcare, education, privacy, data centers, immigration, foreign policy, gun rights, bodily autonomy and the environment. None mentions transgender people, LGBTQ issues, gender or sports. The 'bodily autonomy' section is about abortion and contraception. No interview or news story I found (WESA, Erie Times-News, CBS Pittsburgh, WFMJ, Butler Eagle, Erie News Now, Portside Erie) reports him saying anything on these subjects. 'Mutilation' is a loaded term for gender-affirming care, not a position anyone in the race has stated.

The RNC-paid 'Swamp the Vote' page linked in the post cites no source for any claim about Wagner. The same list of charges appeared against other Democratic challengers in the same day's posts. One charge has a partial basis (higher taxes on the wealthy), one is contradicted by his own statements (open borders), and two have no support anywhere in his record.

Sources: https://www.justinwagnerforcongress.com/platform; https://www.wesanews.org/wesa-voter-guide/2026-10-05/pa-us-house-16th-district-kelly-wagner; https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/16th-district-wagner-calls-change-135436927.html; https://www.predictionedge.com/elections/profile/justin-wagner/; https://branch.vote/races/2026-pennsylvania-general-election--pa-state-us-representative-pa-congressional-16/candidates/justin-wagner; https://www.cbsnews.com/pittsburgh/news/rep-mike-kelly-justin-wagner-race-preview/; https://www.wfmj.com/news/political/democrat-wagner-challenges-incumbent-mike-kelly-in-pa-16th-congressional-district-race/article_488f72c9-4645-4499-b39a-c25b71e6d9ac.html; https://www.butlereagle.com/20260521/matchup-set-for-16th-district-race-between-kelly-and-wagner/; https://www.erienewsnow.com/news/kelly-and-wagner-in-the-16th-congressional-district-forum/article_83c03de7-a122-48ce-bda3-14ec3dfbcb4e.html; https://portsideerie.substack.com/p/exclusive-interview-with-congressional; https://penncapital-star.com/voter-guides/contests/2026-general-u-s-house-district-16/; https://swampthevoteusa.com/pennsylvania/

Overall Veracity: 43%

## Tags

- endorsement (100%)
- midterms-2026 (90%)
- template-batch (90%)
- loyalty-credential (60%)
- splitting (50%)
- anti-trans-rhetoric (40%)

## That day

_From trump.fm's machine-generated digest of the day, not his words._

**Five days before Ilhan Omar faces voters, his account shares a headline forecasting her deportation**

Five days before the midterms, Trump's account ran like a campaign machine. It put out a stream of form endorsements, eight of them for Pennsylvania congressmen within a few minutes, plus get-out-the-vote notices for Kentucky and Montana. Around a rally in Rock Hill, South Carolina, it posted and then reposted a run of fan interviews from outside the arena, and in his own voice he claimed that 99% of Republicans approve of him, about twenty points above the polls. He also bragged about a strong economic growth number, even though one of his own rally clips had a supporter saying people are fed up with the economy. The one sharp turn came late in the afternoon, when the account shared a column predicting Ilhan Omar could be indicted and deported, alongside two pieces about Trump himself being framed by investigators.

Full digest for 2026-10-29: https://trump.fm/date/2026-10-29/analysis

## Citation

- APA: Trump, D. J. (2026, October 29). Congressman Mike Kelly, who has been with us from... [Social media post]. Truth Social. trump.fm. https://trump.fm/post/ts_117525804009701874
- MLA: Trump, Donald J. "Congressman Mike Kelly, who has been with us from the very..." Truth Social, 29 Oct. 2026. trump.fm, https://trump.fm/post/ts_117525804009701874. Accessed 4 Nov. 2026.
- Chicago: Donald J. Trump, "Congressman Mike Kelly, who has been with us from the very...," Truth Social, October 29, 2026, archived at trump.fm, https://trump.fm/post/ts_117525804009701874.

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