# Post ts_117470593220109602

- Post ID: `ts_117470593220109602`
- Platform: Truth Social
- Posted: 2026-10-20T01:16:42.992Z (UTC)
- Deleted: no
- Repost: no
- Canonical URL: https://trump.fm/post/ts_117470593220109602
- Analysis page: https://trump.fm/post/ts_117470593220109602/analysis
- Audio narration: https://static.trump.fm/audio/ts_117470593220109602.mp3 (a synthesized voice reading the post text, not a recording)

## Post text

> Since I took Office, we achieved the largest drop in Violent Crime EVER RECORDED. The Murder Rate is at the lowest level in 125 years, since the year 1900! President DONALD J. TRUMP

## Engagement

- Likes: 8,246
- Reposts: 2,075
- Replies: 199
- Views: unknown
- Metrics collected: 2026-10-21T15:00:19.684Z (UTC)

# Analysis

_Machine-generated by trump.fm on 2026-10-20T02:39:39.329Z (UTC): a model's reading of this post, not his words. Its psychological terms describe the language, not a clinical assessment of him._

## A crime statistic dropped into a Kansas campaign batch

This post arrived at 01:16 UTC on October 20, which is 9:16 PM Eastern on Sunday, October 19. It belongs to a cluster of same-evening posts with one structure: a two-sentence "record" claim, a capitalized superlative, and the closing signature "President DONALD J. TRUMP". Its neighbours attack Kansas Senate candidate Adam Hamilton ("a Radical Left Phony") and announce a run of "Record Setting Numbers" because "the Fake News Media refuses to talk about" them. One neighbour says "today, I AM GOING TO DO IT MYSELF," and this crime post reads as one item delivered under that promise.

### Who wrote it

The evidence points to staff drafting, approved or lightly edited by Trump.
- The signature appears identically across the whole batch. Trump's spontaneous posts seldom sign themselves.
- The sentences are complete and grammatical. Nothing drifts, interrupts itself, or turns to a personal grievance.
- "125 years, since the year 1900" is consistent arithmetic, the kind of exact figure a talking-points sheet carries. Trump's own register favours "the highest ever" or "many people say."
- The capitalization ("Violent Crime," "Murder Rate," "EVER RECORDED") matches his house style. Aides reproduce that style routinely, so it does not settle authorship.
- The 9 PM timing is only weakly suggestive either way. A whole series posting within a short window suggests scheduled content.

### What it is doing psychologically

The trigger looks like maintenance and supply-seeking rather than injury. Two days earlier a Washington Post-ABC-Ipsos poll put his approval at 33%, a record low, and the midterms are two weeks away. The batch answers bad standing with a string of claimed records. That is compensatory grandiosity: when the external picture of approval turns negative, he projects an internal picture of unmatched achievement. This post contains no named enemy and no rage. The adversarial frame lives one post over ("Dumocrats handed us the DARK AGE"). That absence makes it the batch's most purely self-congratulatory item.

The defenses here are mild:
- **Grandiose idealization of his own tenure.** "Since I took Office" credits a single actor with an outcome produced by local policing, post-pandemic normalization, and a decline that began in 2022.
- **Selective attribution.** The fall in homicide during 2023 and 2024, under his predecessor, goes unmentioned. A neighbouring post erases that period entirely as "the DARK AGE."

The narrative is a redemption sequence told at the level of the nation: inherited darkness, then a quick turn to a "GOLDEN AGE." Trump casts himself as restorer, the order-bringer who repairs what others broke. The archetype is the Hero/Savior, which the batch as a whole pairs with the Warrior. The big-five facets showing are assertiveness and achievement-striving, with low modesty. Nothing here distinguishes the post from his long-standing baseline of "best ever" claims.

### Rhetoric

- Superlatives stack up: "largest drop," "EVER RECORDED," "lowest level in 125 years."
- **Post hoc causal framing.** "Since I took Office" makes timing do the work of proof.
- **Faux-precise historical anchor.** "since the year 1900" borrows the authority of a century-long record, although consistent national homicide statistics do not reach back that far. The CDC's death registration covered only some states until 1933, and the FBI's UCR series begins around 1960.
- **Placement in a campaign argument.** The neighbouring post promises "LESS CRIME" and threatens that Democrats "will DO IT ALL AGAIN!" So the statistic serves as the positive half of a fear appeal.

### The factual record

Violent crime and murder did fall steeply in 2025, continuing a decline that began in 2022. Analysts tracking city-level data argued that the 2025 murder rate could be among the lowest ever measured. The direction of the claim is therefore grounded. The overreach lies in three places:
- crediting "Since I took Office" for a trend already under way;
- calling an annual figure the "largest drop … EVER RECORDED" without saying which dataset;
- tying the low to "1900," a year whose national figure rests on incomplete registration data.

### Language, danger, and reality distortion

The two sentences are fluent and coherent. With probable staff drafting, they say little about Trump's own language production.

The post carries no dehumanizing terms and no call to action. The surrounding batch is harsher ("mutilate your Children," "Dumocrat Communists"). This item is the batch's positive pole, and its exaggeration works through attribution rather than invented events.

## Fact Verification

| Claim | Verdict | Evidence |
|-------|---------|----------|
| "Since I took Office, we achieved the largest drop in Violent Crime EVER RECORDED." | **Half True** | Violent crime fell sharply in 2025. The decline is real and large by historical standards. However, it continues a downturn that began in 2022 and ran through 2023 and 2024 under the prior administration, so crediting it to 'Since I took Office' overstates his role. The post also names no dataset for 'EVER RECORDED,' and FBI national violent-crime series only begin around 1960. |
| "The Murder Rate is at the lowest level in 125 years, since the year 1900." | **Half True** | Analysts tracking 2025 city-level data argued the national murder rate could be among the lowest ever measured, so the direction of the claim is grounded. The comparison to 1900 overreaches. CDC vital-statistics homicide data covered only a partial death-registration area until 1933, and the FBI series begins around 1960, so no consistent national figure supports a precise 125-year ranking. |

Overall Veracity: 50%

## Authorship Analysis

**Aide-Written** (score: 30%)

### Indicators

- Identical 'President DONALD J. TRUMP' sign-off across a same-evening batch of templated posts
- Grammatically complete two-sentence structure with no drift or self-interruption
- Internally consistent arithmetic ('125 years, since the year 1900') typical of talking points
- Capitalization of key nouns mirrors Trump's house style, which aides replicate
- Posted 9:16 PM Eastern, outside business hours but within a scheduled-looking series

## Psychological Profile

### Traits

**Big Five:**
- Extraversion: 75%
- Agreeableness: 30%
- Conscientiousness: 50%
- Neuroticism: 30%
- Openness: 30%

Strongest facet: Assertiveness with low modesty (achievement credit-claiming)

**Motives:**
- Agency: 85%
- Communion: 25%

Primary drive: status

### Narrative

- **Role:** Restorer of order who reversed national decline
- **Arc:** redemption
- **Contrasting:** The prior Democratic administration (implicit here, explicit in the batch as 'the DARK AGE')

**Identity Claims:**
- The leader under whom crime fell to historic lows
- Achiever of unprecedented national records

### State

**Grandiose State**

**Trigger:** Supply Seeking (Record-low approval poll and the midterm campaign push in Kansas)

Sentiment: +0.60

### Clinical

**Malignant Narcissism:**
- Narcissistic: 50%
- Antisocial: 15%
- Paranoid: 5%
- Sadism: 0%

**Defense Mechanisms:**
- idealization (immature)
- distortion (pathological)

**Cognitive Complexity:**
- Complexity: 35%

**Parasocial Techniques:**
- Inclusive 'we achieved' that folds the audience into the claimed accomplishment
- Implied bypass of the media (batch framing: 'I AM GOING TO DO IT MYSELF')

## Fact Checks (2)

_The model's verdicts from 2026-10-20._

> Since I took Office, we achieved the largest drop in Violent Crime EVER RECORDED.

**HALF TRUE**

Violent crime fell sharply in 2025. The decline is real and large by historical standards. However, it continues a downturn that began in 2022 and ran through 2023 and 2024 under the prior administration, so crediting it to 'Since I took Office' overstates his role. The post also names no dataset for 'EVER RECORDED,' and FBI national violent-crime series only begin around 1960.

Sources: FBI Uniform Crime Reporting / NIBRS annual releases; Council on Criminal Justice crime trend reports; Real-Time Crime Index (Jeff Asher)

> The Murder Rate is at the lowest level in 125 years, since the year 1900.

**HALF TRUE**

Analysts tracking 2025 city-level data argued the national murder rate could be among the lowest ever measured, so the direction of the claim is grounded. The comparison to 1900 overreaches. CDC vital-statistics homicide data covered only a partial death-registration area until 1933, and the FBI series begins around 1960, so no consistent national figure supports a precise 125-year ranking.

Sources: CDC National Vital Statistics historical homicide series; FBI Uniform Crime Reporting; Real-Time Crime Index (Jeff Asher)

Overall Veracity: 50%

## Tags

- crime-statistics (90%)
- credit-claiming (80%)
- midterms-2026 (70%)
- record-claims-batch (70%)
- likely-staff-drafted (60%)

## That day

_From trump.fm's machine-generated digest of the day, not his words._

**Back from Kansas, Trump spends the hour after midnight reposting other accounts' screenshots of his own claim that France is being "burned to the ground"**

Monday night's Kansas rally for Senator Roger Marshall dominated the start of the day. Pieces of the speech went up on his account while he was still on stage, from a promised $5,000 "Trump Dividend" to a long passage describing France as being "burned to the ground" by migrants and claiming Democrats want the same for America. After midnight he reposted a fast stream of screenshots from friendly outlets, party accounts and supporters quoting that France line back to him, mixed in with praise for the size of the crowd. In the same late hour he went after the federal judge in his Washington golf-course lawsuit and posted photos "for the Judge to study." Tuesday was quieter and mostly routine (early-voting reminders, news links about a women's health order, and an announcement he tied to France), and every call to action all day was a call to vote.

Full digest for 2026-10-20: https://trump.fm/date/2026-10-20/analysis

## Citation

- APA: Trump, D. J. (2026, October 20). Since I took Office, we achieved the largest drop... [Social media post]. Truth Social. trump.fm. https://trump.fm/post/ts_117470593220109602
- MLA: Trump, Donald J. "Since I took Office, we achieved the largest drop in..." Truth Social, 20 Oct. 2026. trump.fm, https://trump.fm/post/ts_117470593220109602. Accessed 21 Oct. 2026.
- Chicago: Donald J. Trump, "Since I took Office, we achieved the largest drop in...," Truth Social, October 20, 2026, archived at trump.fm, https://trump.fm/post/ts_117470593220109602.

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