# Post ts_117383043797111826 - Post ID: `ts_117383043797111826` - Platform: Truth Social - Posted: 2026-10-04T14:11:44.815Z (UTC) - Deleted: no - Repost: no - Canonical URL: https://trump.fm/post/ts_117383043797111826 - Analysis page: https://trump.fm/post/ts_117383043797111826/analysis - Audio narration: https://static.trump.fm/audio/ts_117383043797111826.mp3 (a synthesized voice reading the post text, not a recording) ## Post text > The Polls have ALWAYS underestimated MAGA. They try to suppress the Vote, but I won all 7 Swing States, the Popular Vote, 86% of Counties, and 99% of Primaries this year. I AM ON THE BALLOT! President DONALD J. TRUMP > > From Dick Morris: “Since November of 2025 in monthly polls by McLaughlin, your job approval rating has always been between 47 and 50 percent. I have never seen anything like that in fifty years of polling. Almost every politician sees his numbers rise and fall each month but not you. You won the election in 2024 with 49.8 percent of the popular vote and the latest McLaughlin Poll, taken this month, has your job approval at 49% - the exact same as your vote share. No other political figure has ever had this level of consistency in his ratings. Through the Iran War and gas price rises and falls, your job approval is the same. It never changes. And 49% is enough to win - look at how that level of vote won in 2024! In the same Mclaughlin Poll, the generic ballot is 50-48 Democrat. That is also enough to keep the House Republican. Past history indicates that anything less than a four point margin for Democrats likely points to a Republican House victory. And almost all polls are showing Republican gains in the generic ballot.” ## Engagement - Likes: 15,592 - Reposts: 4,144 - Replies: 1,401 - Views: unknown - Metrics collected: 2026-10-09T04:01:14.098Z (UTC) # Analysis _Machine-generated by trump.fm on 2026-10-04T14:46:37.114Z (UTC): a model's reading of this post, not his words. Its psychological terms describe the language, not a clinical assessment of him._ ## Summary On a Sunday morning, after complaining that Fox & Friends ignored his rallies, Trump posted a Dick Morris message praising his 'never seen anything like that' steady approval in McLaughlin polling, under his own four-line frame. The quoted text admits Democrats lead the generic ballot 50-48 and recasts that as enough to hold the House. Trump's line 'The Polls have ALWAYS underestimated MAGA' dismisses any other polling. Together they leave no result that could count as bad news, a rationalize-or-deny loop typical of his handling of polls. 'I AM ON THE BALLOT!' merges the midterm with his person, though he is not a candidate. 'They try to suppress the Vote' names no actor and no method, but a month before the election it sets up an account of a possible loss in advance. The 2024 figures are accurate. The approval figure comes from his own pollster and runs several points above public averages. The 'polls always underestimate' claim fails for the 2018 and 2022 midterms, the kind of election at hand. The language is coherent, and the 2024 litany is a long-fixed formula repeated as a slogan. ## A deficit reframed as a win, in someone else's voice The post has two parts. Trump's own framing comes first: four sentences, nouns capitalized throughout ("Polls," "Vote," "Swing States," "Primaries"), one all-caps exclamation, and the full-name sign-off. A long block quoted from Dick Morris follows, set in a different register: complete sentences, a long-time pollster's authority ("in fifty years of polling"), and figures from a named firm. The quote does the persuasive work. Trump's lines announce the conclusion. Most of the psychology sits in what the Morris text admits. It concedes that "the generic ballot is 50-48 Democrat." One month before the midterms, the party is behind in its own pollster's survey. The quote turns that into a winning number ("That is also enough to keep the House Republican") by citing a "four point margin" rule of thumb. That is **rationalization**: an unfavorable figure keeps its value and gets a new meaning. Trump's opening line, "The Polls have ALWAYS underestimated MAGA," protects the same position from the other side. If the numbers look bad, the numbers are wrong. The two moves together leave no polling result that could count as bad news. That closed loop is the main defensive structure here, and it matches how he has handled polling since 2016. ## What set it off The morning's earlier posts show the sequence. First a complaint that "Fox & Friends (Sunday) is not covering our packed house and incredibly enthusiastic (beyond!) Rally," then a shared link titled "Mainstream media ignores positive Trump economic indicators," then this post. The thread is coverage that leaves him out. The trigger reads as **narcissistic injury from omission**: the outlet he counts as friendly didn't show the crowds. The response is supply-seeking by proxy. Rather than praising himself, he posts a respected outsider saying "I have never seen anything like that" and "No other political figure has ever had this level of consistency." Borrowed admiration costs less than self-praise and carries more weight with readers. He has done this with letters, endorsements and pundit quotes throughout the second term. The emotional state moves from vulnerable to grandiose across the morning, from "Sad to see" to "I AM ON THE BALLOT!" This post sits at the grandiose end. The Morris text calls his approval steady in a way no one has seen in fifty years, which casts him as unique and outside the ordinary laws of politics. That is **idealization**, offered by a supporter and endorsed by being reposted. ## "I AM ON THE BALLOT!" He is not on the November 2026 ballot. The line carries the post's identity claim. It merges the party's House candidates with his person, so a vote for any Republican becomes a vote on him. This is a standard midterm mobilization move, and he has used it before. Here the capitals and the placement just before the sign-off make it read as self-description, beyond a slogan. Narratively, he casts himself as the **perennial winner whose victories the measuring instruments can't see**. The contrasting other is a vague "they" who "try to suppress the Vote." That clause is the one element with weight beyond this post. It connects polling error to vote suppression without naming who suppresses, or how. The implied mechanism, that bad polls discourage turnout, belongs to a familiar rhetorical family. Four weeks before an election, it also builds a story that can explain away a loss. Nothing in it calls for action or names a target someone could act against, so it stays at delegitimization groundwork and not mobilization. If posts after the election carry the "suppress" frame into claims about the vote count, that would change the reading. ## The litany "I won all 7 Swing States, the Popular Vote, 86% of Counties, and 99% of Primaries this year" is a fixed formula he has repeated since November 2024. Here it gains a fourth item from 2026 ("this year") joined to three from 2024, with no marked shift in time. That compression is rhetorical stacking. It doesn't confuse the two elections, and the syntax stays intact. Neither part shows word-finding problems or derailment. The Morris text is someone else's prose and tells us nothing about Trump's language. ## Authorship It was posted at 10:11 a.m. Eastern on a Sunday, after a Saturday-night rally in Ohio. He was most likely at the White House or Bedminster, both on Eastern time. Sunday mid-morning, right after a complaint about a live Fox segment, fits his habit of reacting to television. The framing paragraph has his marks: arbitrary capitals, "ALWAYS," the all-caps declaration, and the "President DONALD J. TRUMP" sign-off he has used on many recent posts. The Morris block was probably pasted from an email or memo, and its misspelling "Mclaughlin" next to the correct "McLaughlin" points to a copied source, with no retyping. An aide could have assembled the quote, but the framing reads as his. ## Rhetoric and claims Devices: an absolute ("ALWAYS"), the stock superlative litany, appeal to authority (a pollster with fifty years' experience, quoting his own campaign's pollster), a selective statistic (one firm's tracking set against public averages that put his approval several points lower through 2025 and 2026), and an unattributed "they." The 2024 results are accurate. The pattern of polls underestimating him holds for the presidential years 2016, 2020 and 2024, but not for the 2018 and 2022 midterms, and a midterm is exactly what this post is about. The "four point" threshold is a rough heuristic that gerrymandering effects make some sense of, but it is no rule, and in 2018 Democrats led the generic ballot by about 7 points and won the House. ## Fact Verification | Claim | Verdict | Evidence | |-------|---------|----------| | "Trump won all seven swing states in 2024" | **True** | Trump carried Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in November 2024. | | "Trump won the 2024 popular vote with 49.8 percent" | **True** | Certified results gave Trump about 49.8% of the national popular vote, a plurality, against about 48.3% for Harris. | | "Trump won 86% of counties in 2024" | **Mostly True** | Trump carried roughly 2,700 or more of about 3,100 counties and county-equivalents, between 85% and 89% depending on how county-equivalents are counted. The figure is close, though county counts weigh sparsely populated areas heavily. | | "Trump-endorsed candidates won 99% of primaries this year" | **Mostly False** | Every independent tally of the 2026 primaries puts Trump's endorsement record at 96 to 97 percent. None reaches 99. Even the best figure Trump has published, which leaves out most of his losses, comes to 98.37 percent. Independent counts: - Ballotpedia (July 10, 2026): 220 of 227 decided races won (97%). Its count covers congressional, state legislative and state executive races. 159 of the 227 were incumbents, which pushes the rate up. At that point every loss was a state-level race. - Ballotpedia, as cited by the Washington Examiner and Colorado Politics (Aug 19, 2026): 301 of 313 won (96%), with 12 losses. Those losses were U.S. House members or candidates Cory Mills (FL-7), Andy Ogles (TN-5), Amir Hassan (MI-8) and Catalina Lauf (FL-19); governor candidates Burt Jones (GA), Randy Feenstra (IA), Pamela Evette (SC) and Megan Degenfelder (WY); and Phil Berger (NC state Senate), Bruce Borders (IN state House), Brenda Wilson (IN state Senate) and Sid Miller (TX agriculture commissioner). - Other outlets also count Mike Lindell's Minnesota governor primary as a loss. - USA Today's review of Ballotpedia data (late August): 98% for House and Senate races, but 95.7% once state executive races are included. - U.S. News (Sept 18, 2026): headline counts 14 Trump-endorsed candidates who lost primaries. - Several outlets (Washington Post, CNN, Newsweek, Deseret News) report that his primary losses in 2026 match or exceed his losses in 2018, 2020 and 2024 combined, and approach the 2022 record. Trump's own figures: - Aug 24, 2026 post: 254 of 262 (97%), with governors at 80%. - White House official: 256 of 264 (96.7%). - Oct 1, 2026 Truth Social graphic: 241 of 245 (98.37%). That count covers only House and Senate races. It drops the five losing governor candidates and all state-level losses, and 98.37 still rounds to 98, not 99. The gist holds: the large majority of Trump-endorsed candidates won, partly because most were incumbents or favorites. But the specific 99% figure is higher than every count, including his own. It implies about 3 losses when the real number is 12 to 14, in what reporters describe as one of his weakest endorsement cycles. The post also says "I won" the primaries, though Trump was not a candidate in them. | | "The polls have always underestimated MAGA" | **Half True** | National and swing-state polls underestimated Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024. In the 2022 midterms, polling averages were roughly accurate or slightly overstated Republicans, and 2018 generic-ballot polls slightly understated Democrats. The claim holds for presidential years but not for midterms like the one ahead. | | "Trump's job approval is a stable 49%, matching his 2024 vote share" | **Mostly False** | The figure comes from McLaughlin & Associates, Trump's own campaign pollster. Public averages and independent polls such as Gallup put his second-term approval in the high 30s to low 40s through late 2025 and the first half of 2026, with visible declines. Presenting one firm's series as his standing is misleading. | | "A Democratic generic-ballot margin under four points likely means a Republican House" | **Half True** | Because of district geography and gerrymandering, Democrats generally need to win the national House vote by a few points to win a majority, so a threshold in this range has analytic support. It is a heuristic, though. In 2012 Republicans held the House while losing the House popular vote by about one point, and the threshold moves with each redistricting cycle, including the 2025 to 2026 mid-decade redraws. | Overall Veracity: 60% ## Authorship Analysis **Uncertain** (score: 70%) ### Indicators - Arbitrary noun capitalization in framing paragraph ('Polls', 'Vote', 'Swing States', 'Primaries') - All-caps declaration 'I AM ON THE BALLOT!' and absolute 'ALWAYS' - 'President DONALD J. TRUMP' sign-off, recurring on his recent personal posts - Stock 2024 litany repeated verbatim from many prior posts - Sunday 10:11 a.m. ET, same morning as live Fox & Friends complaint ## Psychological Profile ### Traits **Big Five:** - Extraversion: 80% - Agreeableness: 20% - Conscientiousness: 40% - Neuroticism: 55% - Openness: 25% Strongest facet: Assertiveness, with angry hostility held back and steered into a vague 'they' **Motives:** - Agency: 90% - Communion: 25% Primary drive: validation ### Narrative - **Role:** Perennial winner whose victories the instruments fail to register - **Arc:** redemption - **Contrasting:** Pollsters and an unnamed 'they' who 'try to suppress the Vote' **Identity Claims:** - Undefeated electoral winner ('won all 7 Swing States') - Personally on the midterm ballot ('I AM ON THE BALLOT!') - Uniquely stable in public esteem ('No other political figure has ever had this level of consistency') ### State **Grandiose State** **Trigger:** Supply Seeking — Comparison (Lack of Fox & Friends coverage of weekend rallies, earlier the same morning, plus a Democratic generic-ballot lead one month before the midterms) Sentiment: +0.35 ### Clinical **Malignant Narcissism:** - Narcissistic: 65% - Antisocial: 25% - Paranoid: 40% - Sadism: 5% **Defense Mechanisms:** - rationalization (neurotic) - denial (pathological) - idealization (immature) - distortion (pathological) **Cognitive Complexity:** - Complexity: 45% **Parasocial Techniques:** - Direct second-person praise relayed to followers ('your job approval') so readers witness the admiration - Identity fusion with the voter base ('I AM ON THE BALLOT!') - Insider-authority endorsement framing his support as unique and unshakeable ## Danger Assessment **NONE** ### Indicators - Unattributed vote-suppression claim one month before the midterms, a possible base for disputing results later ### Gaslighting - 'The Polls have ALWAYS underestimated MAGA' asks readers to distrust all unfavorable measurement - Democratic generic-ballot lead presented as evidence of Republican strength - Partisan pollster's numbers presented as neutral consensus ## Fact Checks (7) _The model's verdicts from 2026-10-04._ > Trump won all seven swing states in 2024 **TRUE** Trump carried Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in November 2024. Sources: Certified 2024 state results > Trump won the 2024 popular vote with 49.8 percent **TRUE** Certified results gave Trump about 49.8% of the national popular vote, a plurality, against about 48.3% for Harris. Sources: Certified 2024 results; Federal Election Commission > Trump won 86% of counties in 2024 **MOSTLY TRUE** Trump carried roughly 2,700 or more of about 3,100 counties and county-equivalents, between 85% and 89% depending on how county-equivalents are counted. The figure is close, though county counts weigh sparsely populated areas heavily. Sources: Associated Press county-level results > Trump-endorsed candidates won 99% of primaries this year **MOSTLY FALSE** Every independent tally of the 2026 primaries puts Trump's endorsement record at 96 to 97 percent. None reaches 99. Even the best figure Trump has published, which leaves out most of his losses, comes to 98.37 percent. Independent counts: - Ballotpedia (July 10, 2026): 220 of 227 decided races won (97%). Its count covers congressional, state legislative and state executive races. 159 of the 227 were incumbents, which pushes the rate up. At that point every loss was a state-level race. - Ballotpedia, as cited by the Washington Examiner and Colorado Politics (Aug 19, 2026): 301 of 313 won (96%), with 12 losses. Those losses were U.S. House members or candidates Cory Mills (FL-7), Andy Ogles (TN-5), Amir Hassan (MI-8) and Catalina Lauf (FL-19); governor candidates Burt Jones (GA), Randy Feenstra (IA), Pamela Evette (SC) and Megan Degenfelder (WY); and Phil Berger (NC state Senate), Bruce Borders (IN state House), Brenda Wilson (IN state Senate) and Sid Miller (TX agriculture commissioner). - Other outlets also count Mike Lindell's Minnesota governor primary as a loss. - USA Today's review of Ballotpedia data (late August): 98% for House and Senate races, but 95.7% once state executive races are included. - U.S. News (Sept 18, 2026): headline counts 14 Trump-endorsed candidates who lost primaries. - Several outlets (Washington Post, CNN, Newsweek, Deseret News) report that his primary losses in 2026 match or exceed his losses in 2018, 2020 and 2024 combined, and approach the 2022 record. Trump's own figures: - Aug 24, 2026 post: 254 of 262 (97%), with governors at 80%. - White House official: 256 of 264 (96.7%). - Oct 1, 2026 Truth Social graphic: 241 of 245 (98.37%). That count covers only House and Senate races. It drops the five losing governor candidates and all state-level losses, and 98.37 still rounds to 98, not 99. The gist holds: the large majority of Trump-endorsed candidates won, partly because most were incumbents or favorites. But the specific 99% figure is higher than every count, including his own. It implies about 3 losses when the real number is 12 to 14, in what reporters describe as one of his weakest endorsement cycles. The post also says "I won" the primaries, though Trump was not a candidate in them. Sources: https://news.ballotpedia.org/2026/07/10/97-of-trump-endorsed-candidates-won-primaries-this-election-cycle-2/; https://ballotpedia.org/Endorsements_by_Donald_Trump; https://www.coloradopolitics.com/2026/08/19/trump-has-a-96-endorsement-success-rate-here-are-the-republicans-hes-backed-who-have-lost/; https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/4692828/trump-96-percent-endorsement-success-rate-republicans-he-backed-who-lost/; https://www.centraloregondaily.com/news/politics/trumps-endorsed-candidates-almost-all-won-2026-republican-primaries/article_f7c48dd5-dfe8-5d03-bed1-e2f10c26812a.html; https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2026-09-18/trumps-support-couldnt-save-these-14-candidates-from-primary-defeat; https://www.newsweek.com/all-trump-backed-candidates-who-have-lost-races-2026-12295240; https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-endorsement-losses-florida-wyoming-2026-12342353; https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/08/19/three-more-trump-endorsed-candidates-lose-their-primaries/; https://www.cnn.com/2026/08/19/politics/trump-candidates-primary-losses; https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-humiliated-as-election-losing-streak-hits-milestone/; https://www.deseret.com/politics/2026/08/19/trump-midterm-endorsement-record-takes-hit/; https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/trump-touts-republican-primary-endorsement-record-stronger-ever; https://www.rsbnetwork.com/news/president-trump-celebrates-97-percent-endorsement-win-rate-in-2026-republican-primaries/; https://trumpstruth.org/statuses/42069 > The polls have always underestimated MAGA **HALF TRUE** National and swing-state polls underestimated Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024. In the 2022 midterms, polling averages were roughly accurate or slightly overstated Republicans, and 2018 generic-ballot polls slightly understated Democrats. The claim holds for presidential years but not for midterms like the one ahead. Sources: AAPOR 2016 and 2020 evaluations; FiveThirtyEight 2022 polling accuracy review > Trump's job approval is a stable 49%, matching his 2024 vote share **MOSTLY FALSE** The figure comes from McLaughlin & Associates, Trump's own campaign pollster. Public averages and independent polls such as Gallup put his second-term approval in the high 30s to low 40s through late 2025 and the first half of 2026, with visible declines. Presenting one firm's series as his standing is misleading. Sources: Gallup presidential approval tracking; RealClearPolitics and Silver Bulletin approval averages > A Democratic generic-ballot margin under four points likely means a Republican House **HALF TRUE** Because of district geography and gerrymandering, Democrats generally need to win the national House vote by a few points to win a majority, so a threshold in this range has analytic support. It is a heuristic, though. In 2012 Republicans held the House while losing the House popular vote by about one point, and the threshold moves with each redistricting cycle, including the 2025 to 2026 mid-decade redraws. Sources: Cook Political Report analyses of House partisan bias Overall Veracity: 60% ## Tags - polling (90%) - midterms-2026 (80%) - proxy-praise (70%) - election-delegitimization-preframe (50%) - rationalization (60%) - media-omission-injury (50%) ## That day _From trump.fm's machine-generated digest of the day, not his words._ **After Fox & Friends skips his Ohio rally, Trump spends the afternoon posting portraits of himself, one captioned "Super Intelligence"** Trump spent Sunday morning angry that Fox & Friends skipped his Ohio rally. He called a Fox contributor "stupid" and predicted the network would lose its viewers. He also shared a video that names a woman who protests at his properties, asked who is paying her, and called Jack Smith a "Crooked Prosecutor." Early in the afternoon he put up a fast string of flattering pictures of himself, including one labeled "Super Intelligence," along with photos beside China's Xi Jinping and a swipe at the judge in the Kennedy Center naming fight and at the judge's wife. The anger came in short flashes and never built, and every post went up in daytime hours. Full digest for 2026-10-04: https://trump.fm/date/2026-10-04/analysis ## Citation - APA: Trump, D. J. (2026, October 4). The Polls have ALWAYS underestimated MAGA. They... [Social media post]. Truth Social. trump.fm. https://trump.fm/post/ts_117383043797111826 - MLA: Trump, Donald J. "The Polls have ALWAYS underestimated MAGA. They try to..." Truth Social, 4 Oct. 2026. trump.fm, https://trump.fm/post/ts_117383043797111826. Accessed 9 Oct. 2026. - Chicago: Donald J. Trump, "The Polls have ALWAYS underestimated MAGA. 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