# Post ts_115814835032750025

- Post ID: `ts_115814835032750025`
- Platform: Truth Social
- Posted: 2025-12-31T15:15:38.070Z (UTC)
- Deleted: no
- Repost: no
- Canonical URL: https://trump.fm/post/ts_115814835032750025
- Analysis page: https://trump.fm/post/ts_115814835032750025/analysis
- Audio narration: https://static.trump.fm/audio/ts_115814835032750025.mp3 (a synthesized voice reading the post text, not a recording)

## Post text

> There is more FRAUD in California than there is in Minnesota, if that is even possible. When you add in Election Fraud, then they are tied for first. Two Crooked Governors, two Crooked States!

## Engagement

- Likes: 26,615
- Reposts: 7,682
- Replies: 3,098
- Views: unknown
- Metrics collected: 2026-02-01T01:19:51.287Z (UTC)

# Analysis

_Machine-generated by trump.fm on 2026-03-22T06:39:22.676Z (UTC): a model's reading of this post, not his words. Its psychological terms describe the language, not a clinical assessment of him._

## Psychological Analysis: "Fraud in California vs Minnesota"

This post continues a burst of New Year's Eve attacks on Democratic governors, specifically targeting California (Gavin Newsom) and Minnesota (Tim Walz — notably misspelled as "Waltz" in the prior post). The post makes sweeping, unsubstantiated claims of "FRAUD" and "Election Fraud" without specifics.

### Personality Framework

**Level 1 (Traits):** Low agreeableness (hostile generalizations), low openness (rigid in-group/out-group framing). Angry hostility facet of neuroticism prominent.

**Level 2 (Motives):** Power and dominance — delegitimizing opposition governors. Schema: Democratic states are corrupt by nature.

**Level 3 (Narrative):** Protagonist as truth-teller exposing corruption. Contrasting other: Democratic governors as villains. The comparative framing ("more than... if that is even possible") is a signature rhetorical move creating a competitive hierarchy of villainy.

### Clinical Observations

The post exhibits splitting (all-bad characterization of two states/governors), projection (fraud accusations without evidence), and distortion (presenting opinion as established fact). The sweeping "Crooked" labels mirror the devaluation pattern seen throughout his communications.

### Rhetorical Analysis

Classic firehose technique — assertion without evidence, delivered with absolute certainty. The parenthetical "if that is even possible" functions as both hyperbole and humor, a characteristic Trump flourish that maintains audience engagement while escalating claims.

### Authorship

Posted at 10:15 AM ET (Trump at Mar-a-Lago for NYE). Business hours but stylistically authentic — the comparative structure, ALL CAPS emphasis, and punchy closing sentence are signature patterns. Part of a rapid-fire posting spree consistent with personal authorship.

## Fact Verification

| Claim | Verdict | Evidence |
|-------|---------|----------|
| "There is more FRAUD in California than in Minnesota" | **Mostly False** | This claim is vague and lacks specificity, but evaluating it across every available metric shows it to be misleading at best.

Consumer fraud (FTC 2024 data): California had 473,372 fraud reports (most of any state) with $1.7 billion in losses. Minnesota had 31,370 reports with $144.6 million in losses. In raw volume, California has more -- but California has nearly seven times Minnesota's population. Per capita, California ranks only 18th nationally (1,200.50 reports per 100,000 people), while Minnesota ranks 39th. Neither state is unusual. Florida, Georgia, Delaware, and Nevada lead per capita.

Pandemic-era fraud: California's EDD unemployment fraud was estimated at $20-32 billion -- by far the largest of any state. Minnesota's Feeding Our Future scheme involved roughly $250 million in proven fraud, though a former federal prosecutor estimated broader Medicaid fraud could reach $9 billion (a disputed, unaudited estimate). California's pandemic fraud was actually larger in absolute terms.

Government benefits fraud (US Sentencing Commission FY2024): Neither California nor Minnesota appears in the top districts for government benefits fraud prosecutions. The top districts were Southern Florida (69 cases), Eastern North Carolina (35), Puerto Rico (33), South Carolina (29), and Eastern Virginia / Southern New York / Southern Texas (26 each).

Childcare fraud (the specific context of Trump's post): The Trump administration froze funds to both states alleging "extensive and systemic fraud." However, LAist's investigation found only a single federal prosecution in California related to childcare benefits fraud -- a 2023 San Diego case involving $3.7 million, representing less than $1 per $10,000 of federal funding received. The Office of Inspector General confirmed there were no public OIG-released materials on fraud in these programs in California. A federal judge subsequently blocked the funding freeze.

Election fraud: The Heritage Foundation's database contains small numbers of documented cases in both states. Minnesota actually had a slightly higher rate of proven voter fraud per ballot cast (0.004%) between 2008-2018 according to Heritage data. Neither state has evidence of systematic election fraud. The claim they are "tied for first" in election fraud is entirely unsupported by any database or study.

The Cato Institute published an analysis titled "It's not just Minnesota -- fraud is everywhere," arguing that healthcare fraud is a systemic national problem, not unique to any particular state. The article specifically noted that Florida, not California or Minnesota, has been "ground zero for health-care fraud."

The claim's implied meaning -- that both states suffer from extraordinary, governor-caused fraud -- is contradicted by federal data showing neither state ranks notably high in per-capita fraud, government benefits fraud prosecutions, or election fraud cases. The framing appears politically motivated, targeting two Democratic governors, rather than reflecting empirical fraud data. |
| "Election Fraud in both states" | **Mostly False** | Neither state has been found to have significant election fraud by any court or audit. California and Minnesota both have robust election systems with bipartisan oversight. |

Overall Veracity: 20%

## Authorship Analysis

**Self-Written** (score: 85%)

### Indicators

- ALL CAPS emphasis on FRAUD
- Punchy two-sentence closer
- Comparative hyperbole structure
- Part of rapid posting spree
- Stylistic consistency with adjacent posts

## Psychological Profile

### State

**Grandiose State**

**Trigger:** Preemptive Attack (Democratic governors / blue states)

**Rage:** Intensity 50% targeting California and Minnesota governors
- Proportionality: 30%

Sentiment: -0.70

**Mildly Hypomanic**
- Part of rapid-fire posting spree
- Elevated combativeness across multiple posts

### Clinical

**Malignant Narcissism:**
- Narcissistic: 60%
- Antisocial: 40%
- Paranoid: 30%
- Sadism: 20%

**Defense Mechanisms:**
- splitting (immature)
- projection (immature)
- distortion (pathological)

**Cognitive Complexity:**
- Complexity: 35%

**Parasocial Techniques:**
- shared grievance framing
- in-group validation

## Danger Assessment

**NONE**

### Gaslighting

- Presenting unsubstantiated fraud claims as established fact
- Implying widespread systemic corruption without evidence

## Fact Checks (2)

_The model's verdicts from 2026-03-22; a recheck of the unverifiable ones last ran 2026-03-29._

> There is more FRAUD in California than in Minnesota

**MOSTLY FALSE**

This claim is vague and lacks specificity, but evaluating it across every available metric shows it to be misleading at best.

Consumer fraud (FTC 2024 data): California had 473,372 fraud reports (most of any state) with $1.7 billion in losses. Minnesota had 31,370 reports with $144.6 million in losses. In raw volume, California has more -- but California has nearly seven times Minnesota's population. Per capita, California ranks only 18th nationally (1,200.50 reports per 100,000 people), while Minnesota ranks 39th. Neither state is unusual. Florida, Georgia, Delaware, and Nevada lead per capita.

Pandemic-era fraud: California's EDD unemployment fraud was estimated at $20-32 billion -- by far the largest of any state. Minnesota's Feeding Our Future scheme involved roughly $250 million in proven fraud, though a former federal prosecutor estimated broader Medicaid fraud could reach $9 billion (a disputed, unaudited estimate). California's pandemic fraud was actually larger in absolute terms.

Government benefits fraud (US Sentencing Commission FY2024): Neither California nor Minnesota appears in the top districts for government benefits fraud prosecutions. The top districts were Southern Florida (69 cases), Eastern North Carolina (35), Puerto Rico (33), South Carolina (29), and Eastern Virginia / Southern New York / Southern Texas (26 each).

Childcare fraud (the specific context of Trump's post): The Trump administration froze funds to both states alleging "extensive and systemic fraud." However, LAist's investigation found only a single federal prosecution in California related to childcare benefits fraud -- a 2023 San Diego case involving $3.7 million, representing less than $1 per $10,000 of federal funding received. The Office of Inspector General confirmed there were no public OIG-released materials on fraud in these programs in California. A federal judge subsequently blocked the funding freeze.

Election fraud: The Heritage Foundation's database contains small numbers of documented cases in both states. Minnesota actually had a slightly higher rate of proven voter fraud per ballot cast (0.004%) between 2008-2018 according to Heritage data. Neither state has evidence of systematic election fraud. The claim they are "tied for first" in election fraud is entirely unsupported by any database or study.

The Cato Institute published an analysis titled "It's not just Minnesota -- fraud is everywhere," arguing that healthcare fraud is a systemic national problem, not unique to any particular state. The article specifically noted that Florida, not California or Minnesota, has been "ground zero for health-care fraud."

The claim's implied meaning -- that both states suffer from extraordinary, governor-caused fraud -- is contradicted by federal data showing neither state ranks notably high in per-capita fraud, government benefits fraud prosecutions, or election fraud cases. The framing appears politically motivated, targeting two Democratic governors, rather than reflecting empirical fraud data.

Sources: https://www.ftc.gov/reports/consumer-sentinel-network-data-book-2024; https://www.kttc.com/2025/05/29/new-data-shows-minnesotans-lost-1446m-due-fraud-2024/; https://www.fbi.gov/contact-us/field-offices/losangeles/news/californians-report-over-25-billion-in-losses-according-to-ic3-annual-report; https://laist.com/news/fraud-prosecutions-childcare-benefits-ca; https://www.ussc.gov/research/quick-facts/government-benefits-fraud; https://www.startribune.com/trump-repeats-claim-of-19-billion-in-minnesota-fraud-heres-what-the-numbers-show/601588451; https://www.startribune.com/trump-claims-minnesota-lost-billions-to-fraud-the-evidence-to-date-isnt-close/601538955; https://www.cato.org/commentary/its-not-just-minnesota-fraud-everywhere; https://minnesotareformer.com/2025/12/18/u-s-attorney-fraud-likely-exceeds-9-billion-in-minnesota-run-medicaid-services/; https://electionfraud.heritage.org/search; https://www.newsweek.com/trump-california-fraud-newsom-minnesota-11314548; https://abc7.com/post/trump-says-california-is-fraud-investigation-newsom-responds/18362682/; https://www.cbsnews.com/news/minnesota-fraud-schemes-what-we-know/; https://theworlddata.com/minnesota-fraud-statistics-in-us/; https://abc7news.com/amp/post/california-edd-unemployment-fraud-ca-scam-insurance/10011810/

> Election Fraud in both states

**MOSTLY FALSE**

Neither state has been found to have significant election fraud by any court or audit. California and Minnesota both have robust election systems with bipartisan oversight.

Overall Veracity: 20%

## Tags

- fraud_claims (90%)
- governor_attacks (80%)
- splitting (70%)
- election_denial (60%)

## That day

_From trump.fm's machine-generated digest of the day, not his words._

**From 'Happy New Year' to 'Rot in Hell': A Holiday Consumed by Fraud Obsession and Ethnic Scapegoating**

Trump's New Year's Eve started with a cheerful holiday greeting boasting about the economy and border, but the mood shifted sharply by mid-morning into a long stretch of grievance and fury. The most alarming escalation came when general fraud allegations gave way to targeting a specific congresswoman and the Somali-American community with dehumanizing language and calls for deportation. He posted a near-identical defense of jailed election-fraud advocate Tina Peters twice, hours apart, and at least half the day's 17 posts centered on election fraud or attacks on Democratic officials. By late afternoon, the rage had cooled to routine boasting and a parting shot at the Clooneys, but the holiday was thoroughly overtaken by persecution narratives.

Full digest for 2025-12-31: https://trump.fm/date/2025-12-31/analysis

## Citation

- APA: Trump, D. J. (2025, December 31). There is more FRAUD in California than there is... [Social media post]. Truth Social. trump.fm. https://trump.fm/post/ts_115814835032750025
- MLA: Trump, Donald J. "There is more FRAUD in California than there is in..." Truth Social, 31 Dec. 2025. trump.fm, https://trump.fm/post/ts_115814835032750025. Accessed 9 Oct. 2026.
- Chicago: Donald J. Trump, "There is more FRAUD in California than there is in...," Truth Social, December 31, 2025, archived at trump.fm, https://trump.fm/post/ts_115814835032750025.

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