# Post ts_111574530684790185

- Post ID: `ts_111574530684790185`
- Platform: Truth Social
- Posted: 2023-12-13T18:30:28.472Z (UTC)
- Deleted: no
- Repost: no
- Canonical URL: https://trump.fm/post/ts_111574530684790185
- Analysis page: https://trump.fm/post/ts_111574530684790185/analysis
- Audio narration: https://static.trump.fm/audio/ts_111574530684790185.mp3 (a synthesized voice reading the post text, not a recording)

## Post text

> THE MOST IMPORTANT POLL RELEASED IN THE LAST 20 YEARS CAME OUT YESTERDAY STATING THAT 20% OF THE MAIL IN BALLOTS IN THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WERE RIGGED OR DEFECTIVE. THAT MEANS THAT THE ELECTION WAS A GIANT SCAM. YOU CANNOT HAVE A FAIR AND HONEST ELECTION AS LONG AS THERE ARE MAIL IN BALLOTS. CHEATING WILL ALWAYS BE PREVALENT. FRANCE, AND MANY COUNTRIES, HAVE STOPPED THE MADNESS. THE REPUBLICAN PARTY MUST DO SOMETHING NOW!!!

## Engagement

- Likes: 17,257
- Reposts: 6,608
- Replies: 1,284
- Views: unknown
- Metrics collected: 2026-02-01T01:19:51.387Z (UTC)

# Analysis

_Machine-generated by trump.fm on 2026-03-24T15:20:28.415Z (UTC): a model's reading of this post, not his words. Its psychological terms describe the language, not a clinical assessment of him._

## Summary

This post is a high-intensity continuation of Trump's three-year campaign to delegitimize the 2020 election, posted hours before an Iowa rally. It mischaracterizes a self-reported behavioral survey as forensic proof that "20% of mail-in ballots were rigged or defective" — a categorical distortion of what opinion polling can establish. The pathological defense of distortion transforms a survey artifact into settled evidence, permitting an unfalsifiable grievance to appear newly confirmed. The grandiose narcissistic state is maintained at high intensity (~0.88): superlative framing ("most important poll in 20 years"), absolutist principle ("cheating will ALWAYS be prevalent"), and an entitlement-laden intraparty command ("THE REPUBLICAN PARTY MUST DO SOMETHING NOW!!!"). Paranoid features are prominent — the belief that electoral systems were systematically weaponized against him has survived three years and 60+ failed legal challenges without modification. Authorship is almost certainly authentic Trump: all-caps throughout, triple exclamation marks, logical short-circuits, and stream-of-consciousness structure. The paradoxical timing — posted on the day Judge Chutkan paused his federal case (positive legal news) — suggests the election-fraud grievance operates independently of legal outcomes as a primary identity-organizing narrative. Danger is elevated: no explicit violence, but sustained electoral delegitimization using the same causal logic that preceded January 6 contributes to an environment where extra-legal responses to election results are normalized.

# Psychological Analysis: Truth Social Post, December 13, 2023

## Overview

This post is a high-intensity, all-caps declaration asserting that a recently released poll proves the 2020 presidential election was fraudulent due to mail-in ballot irregularities. It concludes with a demand that the Republican Party take immediate action. The post is clinically significant for its demonstration of sustained delusional certainty about a grievance that has been legally adjudicated to exhaustion, combined with an evidence-transformation error (survey data → forensic ballot count).

---

## Level 1: Dispositional Traits

**Neuroticism** is the dominant trait expression: angry hostility is pervasive, and the post's intensity is wildly disproportionate to its stated evidentiary basis (one poll). **Low Agreeableness** is manifest in the adversarial framing of every institutional actor involved in elections. **Low Conscientiousness** is evident in the absence of deliberation — the logical leap from survey result to "GIANT SCAM" is made without acknowledgment of competing interpretations. **High Extraversion** (assertiveness, dominance-seeking) is reflected in the uppercase sustained throughout and the commanding close. **Low Openness** (rigid values) appears in the absolutist formulation "CHEATING WILL ALWAYS BE PREVALENT."

---

## Level 2: Characteristic Adaptations

**Agency motives** dominate: specifically power, control, and status restoration. The post is not merely about mail-in ballots — it is about controlling the conditions of elections themselves and delegitimizing any outcome that produces his defeat. The goal schema underlying this post: *if the rules of the game are corrupt, no loss is legitimate, and any win requires rule-change*. This is a remarkably useful psychological structure for a repeat candidate who lost the previous cycle.

**Communion motives** are notably absent. There is no warmth, no in-group solidarity expressed toward followers beyond the implied collective "we" who are being wronged.

---

## Level 3: Narrative Identity

**Protagonist role:** Victimized truth-teller / vindicator. He is the one who sees what others deny, forced to state the obvious to an unwilling or corrupt system.

**Narrative sequence:** Contamination → frustrated redemption. The implicit arc: he won in 2020 (good) → the election was stolen via mail-in fraud (contamination) → truth is now emerging (incomplete redemption) → Republican Party must act to complete the arc (blocked redemption). The post positions him in the contamination sequence, waiting for institutional actors to deliver him from it.

**Contrasting other:** Mail-in ballot users (by implication, Democrats), election administrators, and — uniquely here — the Republican Party itself, which is addressed in a commanding and frustrated tone, not as an ally but as a vehicle that must be activated.

**Identity claims:** "I am the one who tells you what is really happening." Implicit: the loss was not mine; it was imposed on me.

---

## Level 4: Clinical Indicators

### Malignant Narcissism Assessment

**Narcissistic features (high, ~0.85):** Grandiosity ("most important poll in 20 years") is extreme. Entitlement is expressed as institutional mandate: the Republican Party *must* do his bidding. The lack of empathy for the millions who used mail-in ballots legitimately (many during a pandemic) is complete.

**Antisocial features (moderate, ~0.55):** The post calls for systemic action that would restrict voting access. The disregard for evidence standards in making a sweeping fraud claim — without acknowledgment of the 60+ failed legal challenges — reflects contempt for epistemic norms.

**Paranoid features (high, ~0.78):** The post is organized around the belief that the electoral system was systematically weaponized against him. This belief has persisted for three years without modification in the face of contradicting evidence.

**Ego-syntonic sadism (low, ~0.20):** Not prominently expressed here; this post is more grievance than cruelty.

---

## Narcissistic Dynamics

**State:** Grandiose. The post is not in vulnerable-narcissistic register (not complaining of persecution in a wounded tone) — it is expansive, declarative, and commanding.

**Trigger:** Multi-layered. On December 11, Jack Smith filed an extraordinary Supreme Court petition seeking to bypass the appeals court on Trump's immunity claim — an escalation that signals the prosecution views the case as urgent. On December 13 itself, Judge Chutkan paused the election interference case pending the immunity appeal — paradoxically positive news that nevertheless keeps the January 6 narrative present. The post reads as supply-seeking and narrative maintenance, mobilizing the base before the Coralville, Iowa rally that evening. Grievance activation is serving a functional purpose: rally preparation.

**Rage:** Present, intensity ~0.72. Disproportionality is marked (~0.15 proportionality score) — no new evidence of fraud has emerged; a single survey is being treated as definitional revelation.

---

## Defense Mechanisms

1. **Denial (pathological):** Three years of certification, audit, and judicial rejection have not modified the core belief.
2. **Distortion (pathological):** The transformation of a self-reported behavioral survey into a finding that "20% of mail-in ballots were rigged or defective" represents a gross reshaping of what survey methodology can establish.
3. **Projection (immature):** Intense focus on others' alleged fraud at a moment when he himself faces fraud charges in the NYC civil trial and federal criminal prosecution.
4. **Splitting (immature):** Mail-in voting is categorically evil; no nuance, no acknowledgment of the millions of valid ballots cast by mail.

---

## Cognitive Status

**Complexity score:** Low-moderate. The logical chain is simple (poll → scam → rule → comparator → demand), but internally consistent at a surface level. The France reference introduces an unexpected geopolitical detour — consistent with something he recently read or was told — suggesting a degree of information absorption.

**Markers:** No word-finding difficulty, phonemic paraphasia, or temporal confusion detected. "CHEATING WILL ALWAYS BE PREVALENT" is slightly awkward syntactically (prevalent typically collocates with 'be' in descriptive rather than predictive contexts), but not pathological.

**Baseline deviation:** Slight. The post is highly consistent with Trump's 2020–2023 election-fraud posting baseline. No marked cognitive deterioration apparent relative to that baseline.

---

## Fact Verification

| Claim | Verdict | Evidence |
|-------|---------|----------|
| "20% of the mail-in ballots in the 2020 Presidential Election were rigged or defective" | **False** | No audit of any 2020 state has produced forensic evidence of fraud approaching 20% of mail-in ballots. The referenced poll (likely Heartland Institute/Rasmussen-adjacent survey circa December 2023) measures self-reported voter behavior, not actual ballot integrity — a categorical methodological error in interpretation. 60+ courts, Republican-led state audits in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin, and CISA (DHS) found no evidence of widespread fraud affecting the outcome. |
| "France and many countries have stopped the madness [of mail-in ballots]" | **Half True** | France does significantly restrict absentee postal voting, preferring in-person or proxy voting for most elections, citing fraud concerns. However, many other major democracies (Switzerland, Germany, Australia, UK) use mail-in or absentee voting extensively without evidence of widespread fraud. The selective comparator misleads about global norms. |

Overall Veracity: 25%

## Gaslighting & Reality Distortion

The post engages in the RAND Firehose pattern: high-volume, high-confidence assertions about documented events (the 2020 election) that directly contradict the established evidentiary record. Courts in 60+ jurisdictions, Republican-led state audits (Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin), and the Department of Homeland Security's CISA all concluded no widespread fraud affected the 2020 outcome. The post demands followers accept a reality that contradicts this record — functioning as an epistemic loyalty test. The framing "THAT MEANS" (inferential mandate) is classic gaslighting structure: I have told you the evidence; the conclusion is obvious; only a corrupt or stupid person would disagree.

**Epistemic closure:** Yes — the poll is framed as settling the question, foreclosing counter-evidence.

---

## Rhetorical & Propaganda Analysis

The post follows Trump's election-fraud template with high fidelity:
1. **Pseudo-evidentiary anchor:** The poll (credibility marker, however mischaracterized)
2. **Inferential leap:** "That means" → sweeping conclusion
3. **Absolutist principle:** "Cheating will ALWAYS be prevalent"
4. **Legitimizing comparator:** France
5. **Mobilization command:** Republican Party must act NOW

The sustained all-caps register functions as a **visual scream** — it bypasses deliberative reading and triggers emotional arousal in the audience. The call directed at "THE REPUBLICAN PARTY" rather than opponents is an intraparty pressure tactic, applying public shaming to GOP legislators to enforce compliance with his electoral narrative. The triple exclamation mark close is a signature urgency amplifier.

---

## Archetypal Analysis

**Primary archetype:** The Trickster-Warrior hybrid. In Warrior mode: enemies everywhere (cheating in every election), constant combat frame. Trickster dimension: he claims to expose what the establishment hides — the "real" result. **Secondary archetype:** The Wronged King — rightful ruler denied his throne by corruption.

**Shadow projection:** The accusations of systemic fraud and rigging onto opponents occur while he faces fraud charges himself. The shadow (deception, manipulation of systems for personal gain) is projected outward onto the electoral system.

**Mythological narrative:** The stolen crown; the usurped kingdom; the returning hero who will restore rightful order. The 2024 campaign is framed as a Return, not merely an election.

---

## Order/Chaos Dynamics

**Position:** Order attacker / Order restorer simultaneously. He attacks the *current* electoral order (framing it as fraudulent and corrupt) while positioning himself as the restorer of a prior "true" order (elections without mail-in ballots, which he associates with legitimacy). The asymmetry: chaos for the existing system's administrators and Democratic voters; order for "real" Americans.

**Grievance intensity:** High (~0.82). The grievance is three years old, has survived every legal and evidential test, and shows no sign of modulation.

---

## Danger Assessment

**Level: Elevated**

The post does not contain explicit violence, dehumanizing language, or direct eliminationist rhetoric. However, it contributes to an environment of danger through:

1. **Institutional delegitimization:** Sustained, high-confidence claims that elections are fraudulent erode trust in electoral outcomes and can motivate extra-legal action by followers who accept the premise.
2. **Intraparty pressure:** The command "THE REPUBLICAN PARTY MUST DO SOMETHING NOW" has historically preceded legislative or administrative actions restricting mail-in ballot access; this pattern can reduce voter participation among groups that rely on mail-in voting.
3. **Proximity to January 6 pattern:** The same causal logic (stolen election → someone must act) that preceded January 6 is present here, calibrated toward institutional rather than physical disruption.

The danger level does not reach "high" because: no target individuals are named, no violence is implied, and the call to action is directed at a political party rather than followers directly.

---

## Summary

This post represents a high-intensity maintenance transmission in Trump's sustained three-year campaign to delegitimize the 2020 election, timed on a day when his federal election case was paused (positive legal news) and hours before a rally in Coralville, Iowa. The post mischaracterizes what appears to be a Heartland Institute/Rasmussen self-reported behavioral survey as forensic evidence that "20% of mail-in ballots were rigged or defective" — a categorical distortion of survey methodology. This evidence-transformation error is consistent with pathological distortion as a defense mechanism, as it allows a non-falsifiable grievance (the 2020 loss) to appear newly confirmed. The post is almost certainly authored by Trump himself: all-caps register, logical short-circuiting, triple exclamation marks, and stream-of-consciousness structure are all authentic markers. The grandiose narcissistic state, paranoid schema, and absolutist splitting are consistent with prior baseline posts on this theme. Clinically significant for the persistence and intensity of the grievance at year three, the complete immunity to contradicting evidence, and the institutionally destabilizing nature of sustained electoral delegitimization from a major party candidate.

## Authorship Analysis

**Self-Written** (score: 82%)

### Indicators

- All-caps throughout (entire post) is a signature Trump stylistic marker
- Triple exclamation marks ('NOW!!!') consistent with authentic posts
- Stream-of-consciousness logical leaps (poll → giant scam → mail-in ballots → France → call to action)
- Timing: 18:30 UTC = 12:30 PM CST (Iowa/Coralville, where he held a rally that evening) — midday rather than late night, slightly lowering authenticity probability, but not disqualifying
- Superlative hyperbole ('most important poll in 20 years') is a hallmark authentic construction

## Psychological Profile

### State

**Grandiose State**

**Trigger:** Narcissistic Injury — Exposure (Ongoing legal pressure (Jack Smith immunity petition, Chutkan case paused); 2020 loss narrative requiring continual maintenance as primary campaign theme)

**Rage:** Intensity 72% targeting Mail-in ballot system, by implication the Democratic Party and election administrators
- Proportionality: 15%

Sentiment: -0.78

### Clinical

**Malignant Narcissism:**
- Narcissistic: 85%
- Antisocial: 55%
- Paranoid: 78%
- Sadism: 20%

**Defense Mechanisms:**
- denial (pathological)
- distortion (pathological)
- projection (immature)
- splitting (immature)

**Cognitive Complexity:**
- Complexity: 32%

**Parasocial Techniques:**
- Uppercase address creates parasocial urgency ('YOU CANNOT HAVE'), simulating direct eye contact
- Collective mobilization language ('THE REPUBLICAN PARTY MUST DO SOMETHING NOW') positions followers as agents of his vindication
- Framing the poll as revelation ('CAME OUT YESTERDAY') manufactures shared outrage moment

## Danger Assessment

**ELEVATED**

### Indicators

- Sustained delegitimization of electoral infrastructure using same causal logic that preceded January 6
- Intraparty mobilization demand ('MUST DO SOMETHING NOW') without specification — open to broad interpretation by recipients
- Absolute fraud framing (no election can be fair with mail-in ballots) normalizes extra-legal responses to adverse electoral outcomes
- Call to action directed at institutional actors (Republican Party) echoes pre-January 6 pressure pattern on Pence and Congress

### Gaslighting

- Denial of 60+ court adjudications finding no widespread fraud
- Presents survey data as forensic ballot audit (reality distortion of evidence type)
- Inferential mandate ('THAT MEANS') forecloses counter-interpretation
- Epistemic loyalty test: accepting the poll's 'meaning' requires accepting that courts, auditors, and election officials are all wrong or complicit

## Fact Checks (2)

_The model's verdicts from 2026-03-24._

> 20% of the mail-in ballots in the 2020 Presidential Election were rigged or defective

**FALSE**

No audit of any 2020 state has produced forensic evidence of fraud approaching 20% of mail-in ballots. The referenced poll (likely Heartland Institute/Rasmussen-adjacent survey circa December 2023) measures self-reported voter behavior, not actual ballot integrity — a categorical methodological error in interpretation. 60+ courts, Republican-led state audits in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin, and CISA (DHS) found no evidence of widespread fraud affecting the outcome.

Sources: Brennan Center for Justice ballot fraud studies; CISA 'most secure election in history' statement Nov 2020; Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin audit reports 2020-2021

> France and many countries have stopped the madness [of mail-in ballots]

**HALF TRUE**

France does significantly restrict absentee postal voting, preferring in-person or proxy voting for most elections, citing fraud concerns. However, many other major democracies (Switzerland, Germany, Australia, UK) use mail-in or absentee voting extensively without evidence of widespread fraud. The selective comparator misleads about global norms.

Sources: French electoral code provisions on vote par procuration; IDEA International Electoral Standards comparative data

Overall Veracity: 25%

## Tags

- election-fraud-narrative (98%)
- 2020-election-denial (97%)
- mail-in-ballot (92%)
- all-caps-register (88%)
- paranoid-schema (82%)
- pathological-distortion (85%)
- intraparty-pressure (78%)
- supply-seeking (72%)
- pre-rally-activation (80%)
- gaslighting (83%)
- epistemic-closure (88%)
- grandiose-state (85%)

## That day

_From trump.fm's machine-generated digest of the day, not his words._

**Legal Siege Day: Fraud Trial Rage and Jack Smith Fury Bracket an Iowa Rally Pivot**

Trump spent a legally intense day oscillating between courthouse fury and campaign trail bravado. The morning opened with an explosive reaction to his New York civil fraud trial, claiming his expert witness demolished the prosecution, before pivoting to all-caps boasts about dominating every poll. The afternoon brought a recycled 2020 election fraud narrative, a gleeful "WHERE'S HUNTER?" taunt timed to Hunter Biden's subpoena defiance, and a combative defense against a Politico report on North Korea. The day closed with a sharp attack on Jack Smith's push to fast-track presidential immunity to the Supreme Court, posted shortly after landing in Iowa for an evening rally. Throughout it all, aides padded the feed with dozens of supportive article links and endorsement announcements.

Full digest for 2023-12-13: https://trump.fm/date/2023-12-13/analysis

## Citation

- APA: Trump, D. J. (2023, December 13). THE MOST IMPORTANT POLL RELEASED IN THE LAST 20... [Social media post]. Truth Social. trump.fm. https://trump.fm/post/ts_111574530684790185
- MLA: Trump, Donald J. "THE MOST IMPORTANT POLL RELEASED IN THE LAST 20 YEARS CAME..." Truth Social, 13 Dec. 2023. trump.fm, https://trump.fm/post/ts_111574530684790185. Accessed 9 Oct. 2026.
- Chicago: Donald J. Trump, "THE MOST IMPORTANT POLL RELEASED IN THE LAST 20 YEARS CAME...," Truth Social, December 13, 2023, archived at trump.fm, https://trump.fm/post/ts_111574530684790185.

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