# Post ts_111076494937572486 - Post ID: `ts_111076494937572486` - Platform: Truth Social - Posted: 2023-09-16T19:33:26.057Z (UTC) - Deleted: no - Repost: no - Canonical URL: https://trump.fm/post/ts_111076494937572486 - Analysis page: https://trump.fm/post/ts_111076494937572486/analysis - Audio narration: https://static.trump.fm/audio/ts_111076494937572486.mp3 (a synthesized voice reading the post text, not a recording) ## Post text > “The polls that have been coming out repeatedly show Donald Trump winning over all and Donald Trump significantly ahead in key battleground states.” ## What the media says **Video transcript** (0:19), transcribed automatically, so names and numbers may be wrong. Speakers aren't identified, so a voice in it may not be his: > The other leading indicator to the media are the polls that have been coming out repeatedly that show Donald Trump winning overall, and Donald Trump significantly ahead in key battleground states. That's what rattles their kids. That's right. Yeah, and that every time they indict, every time they do a mugshot, every time they do anything else, his numbers keep going up. ## Media - video: https://static-assets-1.truthsocial.com/tmtg:prime-ts-assets/media_attachments/files/111/076/494/884/602/322/original/9b63775ee22f0628.mp4 ## Engagement - Likes: 10,484 - Reposts: 2,430 - Replies: 278 - Views: unknown - Metrics collected: 2026-02-01T01:19:51.398Z (UTC) # Analysis _Machine-generated by trump.fm on 2026-03-20T08:36:58.996Z (UTC): a model's reading of this post, not his words. Its psychological terms describe the language, not a clinical assessment of him._ # Analysis: Truth Social Post — September 16, 2023 ## Overview A brief, third-person self-promotional post sharing polling data, accompanied by a video attachment (likely a speech clip from his D.C. appearances that day). The post is contextually anchored within a broader same-day burst of RSB Network speech summaries. On its own, it is psychologically unremarkable — a routine supply-seeking broadcast — but it carries diagnostic value as a baseline-calibration data point, particularly for authorship and narcissistic state tracking. --- ## Authorship Attribution **Local time:** Trump was in Washington, D.C. on September 16 (per same-day RSB Network posts about D.C. speeches). UTC 19:33 → EDT 15:33. This is mid-afternoon business hours. **Assessment — probable aide (Scavino)-assisted, medium confidence:** - Business hours timing argues against spontaneous authentic post - The attached video (likely a speech excerpt) suggests a coordinated media-clip-sharing workflow typical of Scavino operations - Grammar is correct and complete; sentence is polished - However: the double third-person repetition ("Donald Trump… Donald Trump") and the mildly awkward "winning over all" (vs. "winning overall") carry authentic Trump speech-pattern markers — suggesting either direct dictation or a close transcription of Trump's spoken words - Most plausible scenario: aide curated and posted a video clip, paired with a line extracted verbatim from Trump's speech --- ## Psychological State and Triggers **State:** Grandiose phase. This is supply-seeking behavior — broadcasting favorable poll data functions as narcissistic supply acquisition: validation from followers, amplification of the "winner" self-concept. **Trigger:** The legal-threat context is the key driver. On this same date, Trump had been severed from the Georgia October trial, was facing a Jack Smith gag order request, and Hunter Biden's indictment was absorbing news cycles. The polling post serves as a reality-anchoring counter-narrative: *despite the noise, the numbers say I'm winning*. This is a well-established coping pattern — when external events threaten the grandiose self, pivot immediately to metrics of dominance. **No narcissistic rage present.** Tone is calm and assertive, consistent with the grandiose rather than vulnerable state. --- ## Narrative Identity (Level 3) - **Protagonist role:** The inevitable winner, the popular choice, the man the numbers validate. - **Narrative sequence:** Implicit redemption arc — the background noise of indictments and legal proceedings is quietly framed as irrelevant by the polling lead. "Despite everything, I'm winning." - **Identity claim:** Electoral champion; the people's choice; frontrunner by definition. - **Contrasting other:** Absent from this post, but the D.C. speech context (RSB links about "defending women," "fighting for Christians," "political prisoners") positions Biden/DOJ as the implied antagonist. --- ## Defense Mechanisms **Primary: Rationalization** — polling data deployed as empirical cover for continued political viability amid legal assault. "The numbers justify everything." **Secondary: Distortion (mild)** — "winning over all" elides distinctions between primary and general election polling, flattening a more complex picture into a unitary victory narrative. No splitting, projection, or acting-out present in this isolated post. --- ## Rhetorical Analysis - **Third-person self-reference:** Creates mythological distance — "Donald Trump" becomes a figure, a brand, larger than the individual. Consistent across authentic Trump speech. - **Repetition:** "Donald Trump… Donald Trump" in a single sentence produces an incantatory effect; reinforces name-recognition and the sense of inevitability. - **Appeal to authority (polls):** Framing polls as objective arbiters of reality; "show" implies revelation, not opinion. - **Temporal qualifier ("repeatedly"):** Signals not a single data point but a consistent pattern — immunizes against easy dismissal. - **No dehumanizing language, no violent imagery, no stochastic terrorism indicators.** --- ## Fact Verification | Claim | Verdict | Evidence | |-------|---------|----------| | "Polls repeatedly show Trump winning overall" | **Half True** | In Republican primary polling (Sept 2023), Trump led by 40-50 points — unambiguously true. In general election head-to-head vs. Biden, polls were mixed with some showing Trump +1-4, others showing Biden ahead. 'Winning overall' overstates uniformity. | | "Trump significantly ahead in key battleground states" | **Mostly False** | Some swing state polls (PA, GA, MI) showed Trump with narrow leads in this period, but margins were typically within the margin of error. 'Significantly' misrepresents the polling picture. | Overall Veracity: 35% ## Cognitive Status **Complexity:** Low-to-moderate. Single compound sentence, straightforward vocabulary. **Deviations:** None flagged. The awkward "winning over all" is consistent with Trump's habitual informal speech register and does not indicate word-finding difficulty. **Perseveration:** The double "Donald Trump" in one sentence is slightly unusual in written form but entirely consistent with his rally-speech delivery patterns. **Baseline deviation:** None — this is squarely within expected parameters. --- ## Danger Assessment **None.** Standard electoral boosterism. No targets, no grievance escalation, no mobilization language. --- ## Summary Not clinically significant as a standalone post. Serves as a useful baseline/calibration point: grandiose state, supply-seeking, rationalization defense, probable aide-facilitated delivery. The legal pressure environment gives the polling emphasis contextual meaning — it is a reassertion of dominance identity when external circumstances threaten to destabilize it. ## Authorship Analysis **Uncertain** (score: 35%) ### Indicators - Business hours posting (15:33 EDT) — aide workflow more probable - Attached video clip suggests coordinated media-sharing operation - Grammatically complete and polished sentence - Double third-person self-reference ('Donald Trump… Donald Trump') is authentic Trump speech marker - Awkward 'winning over all' (vs. 'winning overall') consistent with verbatim speech transcription ## Psychological Profile ### State **Grandiose State** **Trigger:** Supply Seeking — Defeat (Legal threat environment (Georgia severance, Jack Smith gag order request)) Sentiment: +0.62 ### Clinical **Malignant Narcissism:** - Narcissistic: 50% - Antisocial: 10% - Paranoid: 10% - Sadism: 0% **Defense Mechanisms:** - rationalization (neurotic) - distortion (pathological) **Cognitive Complexity:** - Complexity: 35% **Parasocial Techniques:** - Third-person mythologization of self ('Donald Trump' as inevitable winner-brand) - Repetition of name for incantatory reinforcement - Audience recruited as witness to vindication ## Fact Checks (2) _The model's verdicts from 2026-03-20._ > Polls repeatedly show Trump winning overall **HALF TRUE** In Republican primary polling (Sept 2023), Trump led by 40-50 points — unambiguously true. In general election head-to-head vs. Biden, polls were mixed with some showing Trump +1-4, others showing Biden ahead. 'Winning overall' overstates uniformity. Sources: General polling knowledge as of training data — no WebSearch required > Trump significantly ahead in key battleground states **MOSTLY FALSE** Some swing state polls (PA, GA, MI) showed Trump with narrow leads in this period, but margins were typically within the margin of error. 'Significantly' misrepresents the polling picture. Sources: General polling knowledge as of training data Overall Veracity: 35% ## Tags - supply_seeking (80%) - grandiose_state (70%) - polling_boosterism (90%) - third_person_self_reference (80%) - aide_probable (60%) - legal_pressure_counter_narrative (75%) - rationalization_defense (70%) ## That day _From trump.fm's machine-generated digest of the day, not his words._ **Paxton Acquittal Fuels Persecution-Vindication Mythology as Trump Casts Himself as America's Last Shield** Trump spent the day building a layered narrative of righteous persecution and inevitable triumph, anchored by Ken Paxton's acquittal on all impeachment charges in Texas. After late-night posts from a Washington D.C. evangelical summit where he vowed to fight "demonic forces" and free "political prisoners," the afternoon erupted with a rapid-fire burst of nearly two dozen posts celebrating poll leads, ally victories, and messianic self-comparisons to George Washington. The only real flash of anger came when he amplified coverage of Jack Smith's proposed gag order, but even that was folded into the broader martyrdom storyline rather than spiraling into sustained rage. The day's most notable pattern was how every topic -- polls, Paxton, evangelical applause, Fox News coverage -- was absorbed into a single overarching theme: the system is weaponized, but Trump and his allies keep winning anyway. Full digest for 2023-09-16: https://trump.fm/date/2023-09-16/analysis ## Citation - APA: Trump, D. J. (2023, September 16). “The polls that have been coming out repeatedly... [Social media post]. Truth Social. trump.fm. https://trump.fm/post/ts_111076494937572486 - MLA: Trump, Donald J. "“The polls that have been coming out repeatedly show Donald..." Truth Social, 16 Sep. 2023. trump.fm, https://trump.fm/post/ts_111076494937572486. Accessed 9 Oct. 2026. - Chicago: Donald J. Trump, "“The polls that have been coming out repeatedly show Donald...," Truth Social, September 16, 2023, archived at trump.fm, https://trump.fm/post/ts_111076494937572486. ## For agents - Site overview: https://trump.fm/llms.txt - API specification: https://trump.fm/openapi.json - MCP server: https://trump.fm/mcp (search and fetch tools, no auth) - This post as JSON: https://trump.fm/api/posts/ts_111076494937572486 - Analysis as JSON: https://trump.fm/api/analysis/ts_111076494937572486 - All citation formats: https://trump.fm/api/cite/ts_111076494937572486 - Same day: https://trump.fm/date/2023-09-16 - The record alone, without the analysis: https://trump.fm/post/ts_111076494937572486.md?analysis=false _Markdown view of a trump.fm page. Post, analysis, date, feed, contradictions, search and about pages answer in markdown at their URL with `.md` appended (`/index.md` for the home page), or when sent `Accept: text/markdown`._